EUROPA-UNIVERSITÄT FLENSBURG January 30, 2016 Alumni Workshop 2015 Addressing Resilience and Sustainability in Energy Management Table of Contents Workshop Programme .................................................................................................................................. 1 Submitted Papers6-236 ................................................................................................................................ 6 Environmental and Sustainability Issues in the Curricula for Ethiopian Teacher Education Colleges ...... 6 THE UGANDA ENERGY SECTOR – TRACING SUSTAINABILITY IN THE FACE OF A BURGEONING OIL SECTOR -A POLICY REVIEW- .................................................................................................................... 19 Developing self-sustainable solar-run community schools: Case study from Light of Hope’s digital school in Bangladesh ............................................................................................................................... 31 Scheme for Promoting Biodiesel Production in Indonesia ..................................................................... 38 Local Officials’ Concerns of Climate Change Issues in China: A Case from Jiangsu ................................ 56 Energy Management and Conservation Action Program, A Market Model to improve Energy Performance into Business and Entrepreneurship ................................................................................. 68 IMPLEMENTATION OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE IN COLOMBIA. CASE STUDY: SAN VICENTE DEL CAGUÁN ........................................................................................................ 77 Social Implications of Carbon Taxes ........................................................................................................ 95 Decentralized Approach (or) Participatory Approach to Development Projects ................................. 105 ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS – A CASE STUDY FOR NATURALLY VENTILATED BUILDINGS IN THE WARM-HUMID TROPICAL ZONE IN SOUTH INDIA ................................................................................ 122 Ensuring Sustainability of Decentralized Renewable Energy Systems through Creation of Rural Economic Zone (REZ) ............................................................................................................................ 135 Promoting Energy Efficiency in Nepal: Issues, Challenges and Opportunities ..................................... 147 Living Laboratory – a new approach to engineering education ........................................................... 159 Promoting Climate Adapted Housing and Energy Efficient Buildings: Chances and Challenges .......... 169 Energy Management Practice in Developing Countries: A Review of Kenya’s Policy, Regulatory and Institutional Framework ....................................................................................................................... 185 Cross Border Power Trade in South Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for Nepal ............................ 192 Energizing Sustainable Rural Livelihood through Market System Development ................................. 200 ASSESSMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT TO THE SUSTAINABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN THE ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS............................................................................. 207 Developing self-sustainable solar-run community schools: Case study from Light of Hope’s digital school in Bangladesh ............................................................................................................................. 216 THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC ASPECTS OF WOOD ENERGY SYSTEMS IN BURKINA FASO ... 223 Posters of Workshop Sessions .................................................................................................................. 237 Alumni Participants ................................................................................................................................... 280 1 Workshop Programme: 21. September 2015 - 25. September 2015 Day one 21.September 2015 – Public Opening Event at University of Flensburg, EB 63 7:30 Breakfast 8:30 Bus to Campus from Sankelmark 09:15 Welcome Prof. Dr. Werner Reinhart, President of the Europa-Universität Flensburg Swetlana Krätzschmar, Stadtpräsidentin of Flensburg Dr. August Schläpfer, former EEM Director 10:00 25 years international study programmes for sustainable development at the University of Flensburg State Secretary Thomas Losse-Müller, Head of the State Chancellery 10:35 From Artes to SESAM to EEM: postgraduates programmes for development cooperation in Flensburg Dipl.-Ing. Wulf Boie and Dr. Dieter Klein, Europa-Universität Flensburg 11:00 Coffee Break 11:30 Resilience and sustainability in EM – Future development of energy related study programmes at the University of Flensburg Prof. Dr. Bernd Möller, Europa-Universität Flensburg 11:45 Renewable Energy for Community Resilience Nicholas Gubbins, Community Energy Scotland, Eric Dodd, Highland Council 12:15 Learning for international development cooperation Assoc. Prof. Mona-Lisa Dahms, UNESCO Chair of Problem Based Learning, Aalborg University 13:00 Lunch Break Establishment of working groups; preparation of the parallel sessions A- D Tea and coffee at Market of Opportunities 15:00 Opening: Market of Opportunities (EB entrance hall) – Poster exhibition with signature of MoU Welcome- Prof. Dr. Bernd Möller, Europa-Universität Flensburg 2 15:15 Remarks by Prof. Holger Jahnke, delegation member, Department of Geography, Europa Universität Flensburg Mr. Shivashankarappa, leader of Indian delegation Prof. Dr. Werner Reinhart, President of the Europa-Universität Flensburg 15:30 Joint signature of Memorandum of Understanding between JSS Mahavidyapeetha, Mysuru, India and Europa-Universität Flensburg 16:00-19:00 Renewable energy as catalyst for local economy Björn Meyer, Flensburg Chamber of Commerce and Industry Buffet- get together from 17:30 o´clock 17:00 FAEM Nepal – their contribution after the earthquake in Nepal – Dr. Narayan Chaulagain, President FAEM Nepal (tbc) 18:50 Bus back to Sankelmark Day two 22. September 2015 – Moderated parallel sessions – 2 working groups at European Academy Sankelmark 8:00 8:00 Breakfast Bus to Sankelmark for the students at the bus stop at “Feuerwehr-Haltestelle” (Fire brigade ) in Bahnhofstrasse, crossing Munketoft 8:45 Plenary session for all participants Parallel session I (4 Presentations Speakers) Chair: Dan Otieno Ong´Or Parallel session II (4 Presentations Speakers) Chair: Susy Simarangkir Parallel session III (4 Presentations Speakers) Chair: Arun Balamatti 9:00 - 9:45 Dr. Narayan Prasad Chaulagain Patrick Maina Kimari Nhien Ngo Thi To 10:00- 10:45 Yacouba Sambore Hai Anh Tran Fumi Harahap 10:45- 11:15 Coffee break 11:15- 12:00 Arif Md. Waliullah Buihyan Resha Piya Shrestha Nele Rumler 3 12:15- 13:00 Lady Johana Rivera Forero Elizabeth Mosqueda Maria Ana Gonzalez Casartelli 13:00 Lunch 14:00 Parallel session A Rural Electrification and Community Resilience Moderator: John Kuteesakwe, Nicholas Gubbins, Annika Groth Parallel session B Barriers and Drivers towards 100% renewable energies for all Moderator: Wulf Boie, Eric Dodd Result-oriented discussion and elaboration of working paper Result-oriented discussion and elaboration of working paper 16:00 Tea and coffee 17:00- 18:00 Parallel session A Rural Electrification and Community Resilience Moderator: John Kuteesakwe, Nicholas Gubbins, Annika Groth Parallel session B Barriers and Drivers towards 100% renewable energies for all Moderator: Wulf Boie, Eric Dodd Result-oriented discussion and elaboration of working paper Result-oriented discussion and elaboration of working paper Day three 23. September 2015 – Moderated parallel sessions –2 working groups at European Academy Sankelmark 8:00 Breakfast Parallel session IV (4 Presentations Speakers) Chair: Evans Hervie Parallel session V (4 Presentations Speakers) Chair: Arum Sari Reintegrations- Seminar 9:00-9:45 Mona Doctor-Pingel Qiying Hu Reintegrations- Seminar 10:00-10:45 Muhan Maskey Jorge Lossley Reintegrations- Seminar 10:45-11:15 Coffee break 4 11:15-12:00 Susy Simarangkir Mi Mi Maw Reintegrations- Seminar 12:15-13:00 Pushkar Manandhar Alexander Komakech- Akena Reintegrations- Seminar 13:00 Lunch 14:00 Parallel session C Policies and Planning for Resilience and Sustainability Moderator: Bernd Möller, August Schläpfer Parallel session D Education and Institutional Learning for Resilience and Sustainability Moderator: Holger Jahnke, Maria Mercedes Vanegas Parallel session E Reintegrations- Seminar Result-oriented discussion and elaboration of working paper Result-oriented discussion and elaboration of working paper Result-oriented discussion and elaboration of working paper 16:00 Tea and coffee 17:00 -18:00 Parallel session C Policies and Planning for Resilience and Sustainability Moderator: Bernd Möller, August Schläpfer Parallel session D Education and Institutional Learning for Resilience and Sustainability Moderator: Holger Jahnke, Maria Mercedes Vanegas Parallel session E Reintegrations- Seminar Result-oriented discussion and elaboration of working paper Result-oriented discussion and elaboration of working paper Result-oriented discussion and elaboration of working paper Day four 24. September 2015 - Plenary Synthesis Session at European Academy Sankelmark and Excursion 8:00 Breakfast 9:00 Presenting the outcomes of session I-V (Reintegration) 10:00 Coffee break 5 10:30 Global Alumni Networking Future development of energy related study programmes at the University of Flensburg – the alumni perspective Short presentations of alumni coordinators and plenary discussion (3-4) 12:00 Lunch break 12:50 Bus ready for departure 13:00 Field trip: visit of renewable energy projects in the vicinity of Flensburg – gathering at artefact 18/19:00 Artefact Grillabend – Rücktransport gegen 21 h Day five 25. September 2015 - Wrapping up and Graduation of EEM students at University of Flensburg (EB) 8:00 Breakfast 8:40 Bus to Campus 09:15 Arrival of guests 9:25 Musical opening 9:30 Welcome - Prof. Dr. Werner Reinhart, President of the Europa-Universität Flensburg 10:00 Welcome and review - Prof. Dr. Bernd Möller, Course Director 10:15 Welcome - student and alumni representatives 9:40 Musical break 10:40 Graduation ceremony 11:50 Tribute to 300th graduate 11:55 Musical closing 12:00 Photo session 12:30 Buffet 6 Environmental and Sustainability Issues in the Curricula for Ethiopian Teacher Education Colleges: Implications for Environmental Sustainability and Resilience Aklilu Dalelo Associate Professor of Geography and Environmental Education, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia Email: akliludw@gmail.com; dalelowa@leuphana.de ABSTRACT Institutions of teacher-education are believed to hold the key to equipping teachers to address sustainability in their classrooms and thereby shape the future of communities and nations around the world. It is suggested, however, that very few of the 60-70 million teachers in the world have had any exposure in their training to sustainability issues. Investigating the extent to which the curricula in Ethiopian teacher education colleges expose prospective teachers to environmental and sustainability issues lies at the core of the study the result of which is partly reported in this paper. To this end, content analysis was used as a principal technique for gathering information. The result indicates that some of the important aspects of environment and sustainability have been integrated across the curricula, albeit to a different degree. Geography and Civics and Ethical Education contain, for instance, a larger number of courses directly related to environmental and sustainability education than other disciplines. Among the subjects in the Natural Science and Mathematics cluster, Biology and Chemistry offer a relatively better opportunity to integrate issues related to sustainability. The paper also suggests implications of the findings to environmental sustainability and resilience; and ways as to how the observed limitations could be addressed. Key words/phrases: Agenda 21, Content analysis, Curriculum, Sustainability, Teacher education INTRODUCTION Although teachers are often unsung heroes in our communities, they are our hope for creating more sustainable societies. Furthermore, teacher-education institutions hold the key to equipping teachers to address sustainability in their classrooms and thus shape the future of communities and nations around the world (McKeown and Hopkins, 2002, p.252). Following the ever intensifying call for ensuring a sustainable future, there seems to be a renewed emphasis on the potential role of school teachers and institutions that train them. Stimpson [1] argues, for instance, that teachers in the classroom and the curricular choices they make are central to the success of environmental education initiatives. It is also noted that teachers as individuals need the understanding, skills and commitment to environmentalize their teaching without which it is unlikely that programmes will be effective in producing environmentally literate pupils. Teacher-education institutions, as a whole, have the opportunity to contribute to advancing global understanding of sustainability; reorienting education to address sustainability; and promoting sustainable lifestyles [2]. In line with this, UNESCO underscores that effective teacher education in the field would produce an environmentally literate population which in turn could result in environmental action. Incorporation of environmental education into teacher training is therefore considered as "crucial, not only to the future of the discipline but also to the future of the mailto:akliludw@gmail.com 7 environment" [3]. Others present teacher education as a good, non-economic, example of a multiplier effect in action. The justification presented here is that if a teacher learns something, then all of the students in his/her care over the duration of his/her career can be influenced by the learning of that teacher [4]. It has also been noted that the multiplier effect of educating teacher educators about EfS is even greater than that for teacher education students. All these arguments on the potential of teacher education led to the growing recognition of teacher education as the ‘priority of priorities’, as far as environmental and sustainability education is concerned. It was also suggested that “... nations should include teacher education institutions in their national sustainability plans” [5]. More specifically, teacher education institutions are expected to train new teachers; update the knowledge and skills of in-service teachers; create teacher-education curriculum; provide professional development for practicing teachers; contribute to textbooks; consult with local schools; provide expert opinion to regional and national ministries of education; and perform similar services for school principals ([5]; [6]; [7]). A document produced by the European Commission ([8], p.7). presents the following specific strategies to build the capacity of teachers, trainers and school leaders to promote and include the principles underlying sustainability in their approaches to teaching and management: o raising awareness among teachers, trainers and school leaders (at all levels of education and training) of the importance of ESD/EfS, and of the benefits of using this as a particularly useful tool in promoting transversal key competences; o ensuring that teachers and trainers are equipped to teach complex issues linked to ESD/EfS, through initial as well as in-service training, and providing them with adequate tools and learning materials; o encouraging cooperation between teachers of several subjects in the same school to promote teaching and learning on cross-cutting ESD/EfS issues; and o promoting networking, including on-line networking, among teachers in different schools to ensure the continued development and exchange of new ideas on ESD/EfS. THE PROBLEM The theoretical literature presented in the forgoing section provides a strong justification for involving primary school teachers in efforts aimed at ensuring a sustainable future. However, the reality on the ground in many countries seems to give a different picture. Beckford [6], for instance, suggests that environmental education concepts and knowledge are often perceived as 'caught' rather than taught. Other barriers to the implementation of EE in pre-service programs include problems with management of cross-disciplinary approaches or infusion, shortage of qualified and experienced environmental teacher educators, and few opportunities for novice teachers to undertake environmental education teaching and to observe good EE practice during their pre-service experience in schools [6]. A study that reviewed the status of EE in primary education in ten southern and eastern African countries (including Ethiopia) identified three notable barriers to further development of environmental education: inadequate provisions for EE in education policy; deficiencies in teacher training in EE; and a lack of instructional materials [9]. One should also underscore here that teachers can effectively fulfil what is expected of them only if they have, among other things, a curriculum which adequately and properly addresses environmental and sustainability issues; and the knowledge and skills required to deal with such issues. Previous studies indicated, however, that very few of the 60-70 million teachers in the world have had any exposure in their training to sustainability issues [10] (Sterling, 2004). 8 Similarly, studies conducted in Ethiopia show mixed results with regard to teachers’ awareness of and attitudes about environmental and sustainability issues ([11]; [12]; [13]; [14]). The results seem to be generally positive when it comes to the integration of environmental and sustainability issues into the school curricula. With regard to teachers’ knowledge of and attitudes about issues related to environmental protection and natural resource management, the findings seem to be less promising. According to Girma [14], nearly half of the trainees in the Teachers’ Training Institutes of Ethiopia who took part in a study had no mastery of environmental knowledge. Gebrekidan [13] also reported that there was a severe shortage of teachers with adequate training on issues related to population and environment. Another study [12] found a divided view (between favourable and unfavourable) regarding the use and protection of natural resources. A noticeable gap was observed between what educators in Ethiopia thought and what was being advocated by the proponents of the philosophy of sustainability. It was therefore recommended, 17 years ago, that efforts be made to empower Ethiopian teachers to address issues related to environment and development [12]. In the meantime, remarkable developments took place in Ethiopia particularly in the policy arena. A series of proclamations and policies related to environment and sustainable development have been issued; and offices in charge of environmental protection established at federal and regional levels. Whether such policy provisions have brought commensurate improvements in the ways in which environmental- and sustainability issues have been handled in Ethiopian teacher education colleges is not systematically investigated yet. This paper reports part of the results of a study aimed at assessing the current status of environmental- and sustainability education in Ethiopian teacher education colleges. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY As indicated above, noticeable efforts have been made in Ethiopia, since early 1990s, both at policy and practical levels to enable the country’s educational sector to address issues related to environment and development. The policy provisions following the regime change in 1991 seem to have created a unique opportunity for institutions of higher education in general and collages of teacher education (CTE) in particular to revise their programme goals, objectives, content and teaching strategies so as to make a meaningful contribution to environmental protection and sustainable development. Investigating the extent to which such efforts have been made by Ethiopian teacher education colleges to address environmental and sustainability issues lies at the core of the study the results of which is partly reported here. This paper presents the part of the study aimed at assessing the degree to and ways in which environmental- and sustainability issues have been addressed in the curricula for primary school teachers’ education colleges. METHODOLOGY Education for Sustainability focuses largely on the major social, economic, and environmental issues that threaten the sustainability of our planet. Many of these key issues have been identified at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro and outlined in Agenda 21 [2]. Agenda 21 is a document with forty chapters grouped under four broad sections: (I) social and economic dimensions; (II) conservation and management of resources; (III) strengthening the role of major groups; and (IV) means of implementation. It has been argued that understanding and addressing the issues identified in Agenda 21 lie at the heart of education for sustainability [2]. In line with this, this study selected 14 issues, which are more likely to be addressed in the curricula for teacher 9 education colleges in Ethiopia, for analysis from the first and second sections of Agenda 21 (Table 1). Table 1. Key issues addressed in Agenda 21 and identified for analysis Section/ Chapter Issue/theme Section/ Chapter Issue/theme I/3 Combating poverty1 II/14 Sustainable agriculture and rural development I/5 Demographic dynamics and sustainability II/15 Conservation of biological diversity I/6 Protecting and promoting human health II/16 Management of biotechnology II/9 Protection of the atmosphere II/18 Protection of the quality and supply of freshwater resources II/10 Planning and management of land resources II/19 Management of toxic chemicals II/11 Combating deforestation II/20 Management of hazardous wastes II/12 Combating desertification and drought II/21 Management of solid wastes and sewage Source: United Nations [15] As indicated earlier, the major aim of this study was assessing the extent to and ways in which environmental and sustainability issues have been addressed in the curricula for primary school teacher education colleges. To this end, content analysis was used as a principal technique. Content analysis is defined as “a research technique for objective, systematic and quantitative description of the manifest content of communication” (Berelson, 1952 quoted in [16], p.3). Content analysis as a research technique is also described as a careful, detailed, systematic examination and interpretation of a particular body of material in an effort “to identify patterns, themes, biases, and meanings” ([17], p.303-304). The technique is often accomplished through the use of objective language, categorization, and systematic surveys (Burns-Bammel et al., 1988 quoted in [18], p.39). The recently revised curricula (2009 version) for primary school teacher education colleges in Ethiopia has been analyzed based on the following steps: Step One: Determining analytical categories o The core courses (both major and minor area) offered in the three clusters: social science; natural science and mathematics; and language have been considered in this chapter as key analytical categories. According to the revised curriculum, prospective teachers are expected to take 56 credit hours worth courses of this category (which make up half of the total credit hours required for graduation). The other half is composed of professional and practicum courses which are not covered in this study. Step Two: Establishing units of analysis o The specific courses in the three clusters, indicated in step one, have been used as units of analysis. According to the revised curriculum, prospective teachers are expected to take about 19 three-credit hour courses in their major and minor areas. 1 The highlighted words or phrases will represent the whole theme in the analysis of results and discussions thereof in this paper. 10 Step Three: Determining criteria for sorting data into analytic categories o The criteria used here is having sustainability issues clearly (manifestly) mentioned in the statements of objectives and/or corresponding content outline. Fourteen such issues likely to be addressed in the curricula for teacher education colleges have been identified (Table 1). Step Four: Counting the number of entries in each of the three categories o This has been undertaken by counting cases (specific courses with objectives and/or contents related to sustainability issues). The counting was done by the writer himself. FINDINGS The Position of CTE in the Educational Structure Ethiopia witnessed a regime change in 1991 which resulted, among other things, in promulgation of a new education and training policy and an entirely new educational structure. The 1994 Educational and Training Policy changed the structure of general education from 6-2-4 to 8-4 [19]. The current structure thus constitutes of basic, general, higher and specialized education on a formal and non-formal basis (FDRE, 1994). The components are: 1. a kindergarten system for children aged 4-6 years; 2. a primary education from Grades 1-8 subdivided into two sections of basic (Grades 1-4) and general (Grades 5-8) education; 3. a general secondary education from 9-10; 4. a preparatory senior secondary education of 2 years and a system of vocational and technical education in parallel with it; 5. higher education of 1-2 years of diploma and 3-5 years for undergraduate degree and an additional 1-3 years for post graduate degree; 6. a system of vocational/technical training in parallel with the academic education; and 7. a special education system and distance learning. According to the new structure, the colleges of teacher education (CTE) which prepare teachers for primary schools fall under the fifth category (see the above structure); and are responsible to prepare teachers for the first and second cycles of primary education (those in the second category according to the new structure). The curriculum for the first cycle primary school teachers’ education is designed following the cluster modality where different subjects are brought under such clusters as social science; natural science and mathematics; and language. The curriculum for the second cycle follows, on the other hand, a linear modality whereby prospective students specialize in different disciplines like Biology or Geography. The following section presents results of assessment of the place of environment and sustainability in the curricula for CTE in Ethiopia, on stream basis. Sustainability Issues in the Social Science Stream Social Science forms one of the clusters that make up the first cycle primary school teachers’ education; and is composed of Geography, History and Civics and Ethical Education. Prospective teachers are supposed to take a total of 122 credit hours for graduation. Half of the credit hours goes to the three subject areas whereas the other half goes to general education courses, professional courses and practicum. On graduation, prospective teachers are supposed to teach three different subjects (Geography, History and Civics and Ethical Education). 11 Analysis of the existing curricula for the Social Science stream shows that Geography and Civics and Ethical Education contain a greater number of courses directly related to environmental and sustainability education (Table 2). One should particularly underline here that courses in Geography address all the three dimensions of sustainability, namely environment, economy and society. Geography offers (both in its cluster and linear modalities) seven courses that address some of the key sustainability issues of local and global relevance (Table 2). Table 2. Courses addressing issues related to sustainability (Social Science stream: Geography) Subject Course Issues related to sustainability Geography Introduction to climate o Meaning and scope of weather and climate o Elements and controls of weather and climate o Global warming: causes and effects o Ozone: Formation, depletion and effect o Energy balance of the earth and atmosphere o Spatial and temporal variation of temperature o Variation and distribution of precipitation o Variability and dependability of weather and climate Introduction to landform geography o Erosion and deposition; and resulting landforms Economic geography o Environmental perception and behavior o Man-environment interrelations o Factors affecting agriculture o Types of forests and their exploitation Geography of population o Factors affecting population distribution (physical, human, socio-economic and historical) o Population and resource balance o Origin and types of population policy Geography of Africa o Characteristic and distribution of temperature and rainfall in Africa o Soil conservation and management in Africa o Vegetation conservation and management in Africa o Utilization, conservation and management of forests in Africa o Wild animals conservation and management in Africa o Resource and population in Africa o Drought in Africa Geography of Ethiopia o Water resources and their significance o Types and distribution of natural vegetation o Conservation and management of natural vegetation o Types and distribution of wild animals o Conservation and management of wild animals o Soil erosion and conservation o Population policy of Ethiopia o Environmental policy of Ethiopia o Factors affecting agricultural activities Environmental education o Environment and development o The need for environmental education o Inception and aims of environmental education o Principles of environmental education o Environmental education in schools o The environmental education curriculum o The environmental education subject matter o Methods used in environmental education o Environmental education activities and equipment o Evaluation in environmental education o Environmental impact assessment 12 Courses in History, on the other hand, contain no themes directly related to environmental and sustainability education, except one. In History, a course entitled “History of the World” discusses the social, economic and political consequences of industrial revolution. This course could thus lay a strong foundation for understanding the environmental and sustainability crisis the world has gone through in the 20th century. Table 3 indicates some of the specific issues addressed in History and Civics and Ethical Education. Table 3. Courses addressing issues related to sustainability (Social Science stream: History and Civics and Ethical Education) Subject Course Issues related to sustainability History History of the world o Consequences of industrial revolution (social, economic, political) Civics and Ethical Education Advanced civics and ethical education I o Prevention of environmental pollution and wildlife destruction o Protection and preservation of historical and cultural heritages o Proper utilization of natural resources and cultural heritages Advanced civics and ethical education II o Major issues of development o Theories of development o Development in developing countries o Understanding the basis of Ethiopian economy o Policies and strategies of development in Ethiopia Selected topics in civics and ethical education o The issue of environment and heritage o The issue of gender o The issue of HIV/AIDS o The issue of population explosion o North-South debate Introduction to international relations and contemporary global issues o The issue of poverty, development and hunger o HIV/AIDS o The environment o Gender Environmental resources and heritage management o Understanding the environment o Biodiversity o National parks o Geological features o Water bodies o Climate o Current condition of the environment and the Ethiopian heritage o Factors accountable for environmental degradation o Deterioration of the Ethiopian cultural heritage o Mechanisms of safeguarding environment and heritages Civics and Ethical Education has five courses that contain almost all the important dimensions of sustainability education. What is more, the courses try to balance the need for protection and preservation of natural and cultural heritages, unlike previous efforts in environmental education in Ethiopia which tended to focus on the natural environment. The courses in Civics and Ethical Education also appear to take a broader view of poverty and development and introduce the North- South divide in the level of economic development and resource utilization which forms a very important part in any discussion on sustainable development. 13 Sustainability Issues in the Natural Science and Mathematics Stream The Natural Science and Mathematics cluster is composed of four subjects, i.e. prospective teachers trained in this cluster are prepared to teach one of the four subjects in the first cycle primary schools: Biology, Chemistry, Mathematics and Physics. Among the subjects in this cluster, Biology and Chemistry have a relatively better provision for inclusion of issues related to sustainability (Table 4). Biology has three courses dealing mainly with ecology, conservation and human health. The efforts to emphasize on the link between population growth, health and economic development are worth underlining here. The course entitled “Ecology and Conservation” covers issues ranging from greenhouse gases to global conventions. Table 4. Courses addressing issues related to sustainability (Natural Science and Mathematics stream: Biology) Subject Course Issues related to sustainability Biology General Biology o Conservation of natural resources o Rapid population growth and its effects on health, economy and the environment Ecology and Conservation o Global environmental change o Greenhouse gases o Global climate change o Conservation of natural resources o Values of biodiversity and ecosystem services o Threats to biodiversity (habitat degradation and loss, habitat fragmentation, overexploitation, invasive species) o Combating desertification o International conventions, and national policies and institutions Health Sciences o Environmental sanitation o Personal hygiene o Public health laws o Rapid population growth and its effects on health, economy and environment Microbiology and Biotechnology o Note: Here is a missed opportunity to introduce the debate on the pros and cons of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) Chemistry has two courses that focus mainly on energy and environmental pollution (Table 5). Almost every aspect of the contemporary environmental issue has been considered thereby creating a tremendous opportunity for the lecturers/teachers to engage their students so as to seek locally relevant solutions to some of these problems (e.g. solid waste management). Physics appears to be less engaged in sustainability education with only one of its courses, namely, “Earth Science and Astronomy” offering a significant opportunity to deal with sustainability issues. There is another course in Physics that slightly touches energy efficiency (Table 5). Table 5. Courses addressing issues related to sustainability (Natural Science and Mathematics stream: Chemistry and Physics) Subject Course Issues related to sustainability Physics Heat and Thermodynamics o The efficiency of engines Earth Science and Astronomy o Major global climate zones and changes in weather o Human impacts on weather and climate o Chemistry and environment 14 Chemistry General Chemistry III o Concept of environment o Environmental pollution o Air pollution o Water pollution o Soil pollution o Global warming o Greenhouse effect o Natural resources, energy and environment o Soil fertility and productivity o Agrochemicals Applied Chemistry o Water pollution and its prevention o Energy sources and consumption in industries o Factors for selection of fuels o Alternative energy sources o Ethiopian energy sources and consummation o Impact of anthropogenic chemicals on the environment o Soil and water pollution o Atmospheric pollution o Global warming and the consequences o Ozone depletion and its causes o Waste from industries and municipalities o Reducing waste generation o Recycling waste o Effects of toxic chemicals on the health of animals and plants Though there are noticeable efforts in Biology curriculum to link population issues with ecological and economic consequences, the Natural Science and Mathematics curriculum generally tends to focus on the ecological component of sustainability much more than the other components, namely social and economic. The debates surrounding the effects of chemicals being used in Ethiopian industries (e.g. horticultural industries) and the controversies on use of genetically modified organisms could have been integrated into the curricula. In this regard, the course in Biology, entitled “Microbiology and Biotechnology” exemplifies a missed opportunity to introduce the debate on the pros and cons of genetically modified organisms. Sustainability Issues in the Language Stream The Language stream is composed of English, Amharic and a local languages. Prospective teachers in this cluster where local languages are not taught will take Civics and Ethical Education as a third subject. Compared to the other clusters, the integration of sustainability seems very modest in the case of courses in the Language stream. Table 6 shows issues related to sustainability addressed in this cluster. Three important issues have been addressed in English. These issues have been presented as reading texts in two of the courses; Communicative English I and Communicative English II (Table 6). One can thus see that there are opportunities to include more issues related to sustainability not only in English but also Amharic (official language) and other local languages. Table 6: Courses addressing issues related to sustainability (Language stream) Subject Course Issues related to sustainability English Communicative English Skills I o Sense of responsibility Communicative English Skills II o Poverty and globalization o Ethiopian water resources 15 Integration of Issues in Agenda 21 As indicated in the methodology section, this study attempted to see the degree to which sustainability issues identified in Agenda 21 have been ‘manifestly’ addressed in the revised curricula for CTE in Ethiopia. To this end, 14 issues likely to be addressed in the Ethiopian context have been selected (Tables 1 and 7). It is important to underscore that 13 out of the 14 issues have been integrated into the existing curricula, albeit to a different degree. Issues that have been integrated into three or more courses include protection of the atmosphere (integrated into 5 courses); planning and management of land resources (into 4 courses); and protection of fresh water resources (into 4 courses); and demographic dynamics (into 3 courses). The following are issues integrated into two courses: Combating poverty; combating deforestation; combating desertification and drought; sustainable agriculture and rural development; and conservation of biological diversity. Four of the issues have been integrated into one course whereas one issue, namely, management of biotechnology, has not been integrated anywhere in the curricula examined here (Table 7). Table 7: Sustainability issues in Agenda 21 integrated into the curricula for CTE in Ethiopia Section/ Chapte r Issue/theme Department Course I/3 Combating poverty2 Civics and Ethical Education Introduction to International Relations and Contemporary Global Issues English Communicative English Skills II I/5 Demographic dynamics and sustainability Geography Geography of Population Civics and Ethical Education Selected Topics in Civics and Ethical Education Biology General Biology I/6 Protecting and promoting human health Biology Health Sciences II/9 Protection of the atmosphere Geography Introduction to Climate Biology Ecology and Conservation Chemistry General Chemistry III Applied Chemistry Physics Earth Science and Astronomy II/10 Planning and management of land resources Geography Introduction of Landform Geography Geography of Africa Geography of Ethiopia Civics and Ethical Education Environmental Resources and Heritage Management II/11 Combating deforestation Geography Geography of Africa Biology Ecology and Conservation II/12 Combating desertification and drought Geography Geography of Africa Biology Ecology and Conservation II/14 Sustainable agriculture and rural development Geography Economic Geography Geography of Ethiopia II/15 Conservation of biological diversity Civics and Ethical Education Environmental Resources and Heritage Management 2 The highlighted words or phrases will represent the whole theme in the analysis of results and discussions thereof in the paper. 16 Biology Ecology and Conservation II/16 Management of biotechnology --------- -------- II/18 Protection of the quality and supply of freshwater resources Geography Economic geography Civics and Ethical Education Environmental Resources and Heritage Management Chemistry General Chemistry III Applied Chemistry II/19 Management of toxic chemicals Chemistry Applied Chemistry II/20 Management of hazardous wastes Chemistry Applied Chemistry II/21 Management of solid wastes and sewage Chemistry Applied Chemistry Table 7 shows, among other things, that most of the sustainability issues identified in Agenda 21 are already integrated into two or more of the courses in the revised curricula for Ethiopian teacher education colleges. This, by itself, is quite encouraging. One should also underline here that integration alone does not ensure appropriate handling of the issues in and outside a college classroom. In any case, results of this study give an important clue as to where we have good entry points to build the capacity of college teachers to address key environmental and sustainability issues in the future. In relation to this, Down ([20] p.398) advises that "lecturers need to use 'natural' entry points to the introduction of the concept of sustainability, that is, areas of the subject that can dovetail easily with reflection on and learning about sustainability". On the other hand, this study also shows areas which need more work so as to make environmental and sustainability education a nationwide agenda embraced by all departments (and not left to individual subjects and lecturers/teachers). CONCLUSION It is strongly argued that 'if education is a solution in working toward a sustainable future then initial teacher training (ITT) provides a strategic opportunity for ensuring that all teachers are able to teach for sustainability when they begin their teaching carriers" ([21], p.599). For this to happen, environmental education "should become a requisite component of pre-service teacher education and that faculties of education make EE a teachable subject and expose all teacher candidates to it" [6]. In Ethiopia, colleges of primary school teacher education occupy a pivotal position which helps them play a leading role in enhancing a culture of critical thinking among the various segments of the society. First, they are fairly widely distributed across the country thereby having a great chance to reach local communities, particularly rural communities which make up more than 80% of the country’s population. Second, they are responsible for training teachers for primary schools which house millions of kids, a good proportion of whom having little chance to go beyond grade eight. Third, it is easier to integrate place-based environmental and development issues at this level than, for instance, at a university level. Fourth, it is possible to utilize the already existing networks between these colleges and the schools in their areas of influence to maximize the impact of possible interventions (without a need for additional resources or with relatively much less resources). Achieving all this requires, among other things, provision of adequate curricular time for environmental and sustainability issues in the CTE. This study tried to examine whether or not this was the case by analyzing the revised curricula. 17 The results of the study indicate that most of the sustainability issues identified in Agenda 21 have already been integrated into two or more of the courses. Discipline wise, Geography and Civics and Ethical Education contain a larger number of courses directly related to sustainability education. It is particularly underlined that courses in Geography address all the three dimensions of sustainability, namely, environment, economy and society. Likewise, Civics and Ethical Education offers courses that contain almost all the dimensions of sustainability education. What is more, the courses in Civics and Ethical Education take a broader view of poverty and development and introduce the North-South divide in level of economic development and resource utilization. Among the subjects in the Natural Science and Mathematics cluster, Biology and Chemistry have a relatively better provision for inclusion of issues related to sustainability. The effort made in Biology to emphasize the link between rate of population growth, health and economic development is worth underlining here. Chemistry has courses that focus mainly on energy and environmental pollution. Almost every aspect of the contemporary environmental issue has been duly considered in Chemistry courses. Based on the major findings of the study, it is possible to conclude the existing curricula for Ethiopian CTE already address a range of environmental and suitability issues and, therefore, provide a huge potential to contribute towards environmental sustainability and resilience. At the same time, one should also underscore that the making full use of the curriculum requires (a) strengthening those areas that have been addressed only slightly (e.g. loss of biodiversity); (b) including issues which have not been addressed; and (c) ensuring that aspects of sustainability are integrated into as many disciplines as possible. Achieving all this, in turn, requires consideration of environmental and sustainability issues as a 'priority' by educational policy makers, educational administrators and teachers [9]. Finally, as the issues already integrated into the curricula give adequate entry for environmental and sustainability education in these institutions, the Colleges or other stakeholders should consider conducting an on-the-job training for teachers with a focus of active learning methodologies. Some scholars put a special emphasis on the contribution of school focused continuous professional development (CPD) in achieving the aims of educational for sustainability [22]. It has thus been underlined that "whatever the educational system, CPD provision in environmental/sustainability education must have a significant school focus" ([22], p.380). REFERENCES 1. Stimpson, P. G., Environmental Challenge and Curricular Responses in Hong Kong. Environmental Education Research, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 345-357, 1997 2. McKeown, R. and Hopkins, C., Weaving Sustainability into Pre-service Teacher Education Programs. In Filho, W. L. (ed.), Teaching Sustainability at Universities: Towards Curriculum Greening. Frankfurt am Main: Lang, 2002 3. Fien, J. and Tilbury, D., Learning for a Sustainable Environment: An Agenda for Teacher Education in Asia and the Pacific. Bangkok: Unesco Principal Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, 1996 4. Chambers, D., Making the most of the Multiplier Effect: Teacher Education as a Key to Sustainability, 2009. http://acts.asn.au./wp-content/uploads/2009/01/making-the-most-of-the- multiplier-effect-teacher-education-as-a-key-to-sustainability-dianne-chambers.pdf (accessed-05 August, 2010) 5. UNESCO, Guidelines and Recommendations for Reorienting Teacher Education to Address Sustainability. Education for Sustainable Development in Action, Technical Paper No. 2, 2005 http://acts.asn.au./wp-content/uploads/2009/01/making-the-most-of-the-multiplier-effect-teacher-education-as-a-key-to-sustainability-dianne-chambers.pdf http://acts.asn.au./wp-content/uploads/2009/01/making-the-most-of-the-multiplier-effect-teacher-education-as-a-key-to-sustainability-dianne-chambers.pdf 18 6. Beckford, C., Re-orienting Environmental Education in Teacher Education Programs in Ontario. JOurnal of Teaching and Learning, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 55-66, 2008 7. Gough, A., Appropriate Pedagogy for Education for Sustainability in Teacher Education, Proceedings of a Training Workshop on Capacity Development of Teacher Education Institutions (TEIs) on Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Timor-Leste in Reorienting Teacher Education to Address Sustainability", held on 8-10 December 2010 at the Atlet Century Park Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia, 2010 8. Council of the European Union, Draft Council Conclusions on Education for Sustainable Development. Brussels, 20 August 2010 9. Taylor, C., Environmental Education Primary Education: Status and Trends in Southern and Eastern Africa. Environmental Education Research, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 201-215, 1998 10. Sterling, S., Sustainable Education: Re-visioning Learning and Change. Schumacher Briefing No. 6, 2004 11. Dalelo, A., Educators’ Views about the Use and Protection of Natural Resources in Ethiopia: The Case of Teachers and School Administrators. The Ethiopian Journal of Education, Vol XVIII, No. 2, December 1998 p41-61, 1998 12. Dalelo, A., Enabling Schools to Address Key Environmental Issues: Opportunities and Challenges. Journal of Education for Development, Vol. 1, No.1, September 2006, p37-56, 2006 13. Gebrekidan, A., Integrating Environmental Education into the Secondary and Senior Secondary Schools Curricula in Ethiopia, In Proceedings of the Conference of Teacher Education for Sustainable Development in Ethiopia, Organized by College of Education, Addis Ababa University, May 5-6, Debre Zeit, 2006 14. Girma, M., An Investigation into the Integration of Environmental Education into Social Studies Course in Some Selected Teacher Training Institutes (TTIs) of Ethiopia. Unpublished MA Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, 1994 15. United Nations, Agenda 21: United Nations Conference on Environment & Development, Rio de Janerio, Brazil, 3–14 June 1992. http://worldinbalance.net/pdf/1992-agenda21.pdf, visited 6 October 2010, 1992 16. Asgedom, A., Content Analysis Methodology and Applications to Curriculum Evaluation. IER Flambeau, 6(1), 1–14, 1998 17. Berg, B.L., Quantitative Research Methods for the Social Sciences. Boston: Pearson, 2007 18. Norris, K.S. & Jacobson, S.K., Content Analysis of Tropical Conservation Education Programs: Elements of Success. The Journal of Environmental Education, 30(1), 38–44, 1998 19. Ethiopian National Agency for UNESCO The Development of Education: National Report of Ethiopia (Final Version), 2001. Available at: http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/ICE/natrap/Ethiopia.pdf (accessed on 13 September, 2010) 20. Down, L., Addressing the Challenges of Mainstreaming Education for Sustainable Development in Higher Education. International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 390-399, 2006 21. Firth, R. and Winter, C., Constructing Education for Sustainable Development: The Secondary Geography Curriculum and Initial Teacher Training. Environmental Education Research, Vol. 13, No. 5, pp.599-619, 2007 22. Shallcross, T.et al., Developing a School Focused Approach to Continuing Professional Development in Sustainability Education. Environmental Education Research, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp.363-382,2000 http://www.ibe.unesco.org/International/ICE/natrap/Ethiopia.pdf 19 THE UGANDA ENERGY SECTOR – TRACING SUSTAINABILITY IN THE FACE OF A BURGEONING OIL SECTOR -A POLICY REVIEW- Alexander Komakech-Akena1* 1: Senior Energy and Power Engineer AOT Consulting (EA) Limited P.O. Box 10061 Kampala, Uganda e-mail: a.komakech@aotconsulting.co.ug Keywords: Low carbon emission, Oil exploitation, Sustainability, Renewables, CO2, Abstract This paper critically assesses the current status quo of the energy sector in Uganda, particularly highlighting such important aspects as the contributions of the various energy alternatives (fossil fuel-base and renewable sources), government strategic plans, as well as the electricity consumption and supply. A projection of the growth, for aggregate energy production, consumption and GHGs is then made. Basing on the observations, the paper projects the expected rise in CO2 emission level resulting from increased oil usage mostly in transport and power sub-sectors. Further analysis of the economic and social cost related to developing renewable energy sources against fossil fuel based plants is made. The paper also discusses the potential impacts of climate change on hydrological base power plants. The paper answers such pertinent questions as: Can we keep the CO2 levels below acceptable thresholds and protect the environment, even in an oil-complemented energy sector? How must Uganda modify the current energy policies and strategies to ensure that energy development shall be done sustainably when the oil and gas sectors become big players in the energy market? What are the lessons regarding sustainable energy development that we can learn from countries that have only recently started exploiting oil resources? The paper concludes with a proposed path for Uganda to develop her energy sector, even with oil, in a sustainable fashion. 1. INTRODUCTION Hitherto, Uganda’s electricity has been generated mainly from renewable hydrological sources, and only supplemented by a small percentage of fossil fuels. For that reason alone, CO2 emission level has so always been low, below 3,784ktCO2 annually- representing 0.1% of the World3 which is considered non distressful. That is all bound to change with commencement of commercial oil production in Uganda, scheduled for 2017/18. A remarkable increase in fossil fuel usage, especially in the transport and energy sector once commercial production starts. This will in turn increase the GHGs emission level of Uganda, bringing the question of sustainable energy development into focus. The challenge, therefore, is how to develop a sustainable and strategic development plan for the evolving energy industry where the contribution from oil and gas products is on the increase. 3 Word Bank Databank - http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT/countries?display=m , May 2013 mailto:komakech@aotconsulting.mail.com http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT/countries?display=m 20 2. ENERGY SITUATION The energy sector of Uganda is dominated by biomass, which accounts for more than 90% of the total primary energy supply (TPES). Electricity contributes only 1.3% while the remaining 8.7% is from Oil and petroleum products [source?].The generation mix is of the order 52% from hydropower – contributed by; Kiira (200MW), Bujagali (250MW), Nalubaale (180MW) and eight small hydropower plants (56.5MW), 43% thermal power and 5% utilizing small generation source based on renewable sources such as mini hydro and bagasse. The total installed capacity of the country is 818.5MW, with an actual output of about 580 MW 4.Figure 2-1 outlines a summarized representation of the major power plants in Uganda. At peak time, the electricity demand rises to 650MW(1), which leaves about 28% of the electricity demand unmet. With this shortfall, power rationing is necessary to balance the rising peaks. Electrification rates remain low, at 12%(2). This can be further broken down to 10% for urban and 6% for rural areas. The low electrification rates are attributed to delays - caused by “lack of finances or access to funding, to construct new power plants” [insert source]. The rise in demand for new electricity connections, as registered by the Power Utility (Umeme), is estimated at 20% per year, further increasing pressure on the supply side. Figure 2-1: Power Plants in Uganda Source: Author compiled Despite the seemingly gloomy energy situation, Uganda is abundantly endowed with energy resources, a large portion of which is renewable and remains largely un-tapped. Together with the discovery of oil, these resources, if well exploited, would comfortably meet the country’s power demands, and even export to the neighbouring countries. 2.1. Share of Renewables Renewable energy resources have a high share in Uganda’s power generation mix, contributing almost 95% of the power generated. Hydropower plants and biomass sources such as bagasse jointly produce about 780MW towards the total national power production in the present day. 4 Counting all power plants including the thermal diesel generation sets at district levels 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 C a p a ci ty ( M W ) Major Power Plants in Uganda 21 Fossil-fuelled power plants are intentioned to serve as a temporary coping strategy to manage the run-away demand at peak times. This trend is set to change when all the planned and proposed hydro power plants are implemented by 2030. Figure 2-1 illustrates how the power generation sector has benefited from renewable resources since 1980. The shortfall in 2005 and 2006 in the growth show how the power sector was affected by long draughts and erratic rainfalls of those years. Figure 2-2: Capacity Percentage Share by Resource type Source: Compiled by Author from PSIPD, MEMD Figure 2-3: Renewable energy contribution power generation in Uganda Source: CIA database, 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 5 2 0 2 6 2 0 2 7 2 0 2 8 2 0 2 9 2 0 3 0 BAU - Electricity Generation Forecast Clean energy Renewable Base (hydrological) Fossi fuel- Base 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 Renewables in Uganda 22 2.2. Oil in Uganda Traditional ‘oil nations’ in Africa have long comprised of Libya, Angola, Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt and Sudan until the recent entry of newcomers like; Ghana, Uganda and Mozambique. As international oil companies intensify their exploration for oil and gas on the continent, the number of newcomers is set to rise, as more and more oil deposits are discovered. For Uganda, the burgeoning oil sector is a welcome ‘gift of nature.’ After the confirmation of commercial deposits of oil and gas in the Albertine Graben5 in 2006, preparations have since been made to explore and exploit the resource. It is estimated that some 3.5 billion barrels in reserve lie untapped and due for commercial production by 20176. About 40% of Albertine Graben has been explored, with over 90 wells drilled on tilted fault blocks, rollover anticlines and flower structures of significant sizes. Wells drilled on a number of structures during 2002—2013 confirmed the presence of multiple exploitable accumulations of hydrocarbons making 21 discoveries and providing up over 3.5 billion barrels of Oil equivalent. Flow testing of the Waraga, Mputa, Kingfisher, Kigogole and Kasamene prospects has yielded flow rates between 3,550 and 12,000 BOPD (2) The Government plans to utilise the first fruiting of this oil to increase electricity generation capacity through thermal power plants. In the Grid Development Plan (GDevP) reviewed, UETCL has plans to evacuate over 6000MW of electricity generated by heavy fuel oil (HFO) and CCGT technologies through 400kV transmission line (3) from the Albertine Graben region. However, in the short term, slightly over 50MW of electricity is to be generated from the region. Plans are already underway to implement the evacuation of this power through the proposed 220kV Hoima – Kafu line. In addition to increasing the share of modern energy for end-users in the commercial and household subsectors, the Ugandan community shall benefit from other by-products such as kerosene, diesel and LPG. The immediate social challenge is to develop the new oil sector in a way that will ensure that benefits and opportunities are equally and equitability distributed, and in an ethical manner. This would require good management and transparency right from the infancy stages of developing this sector. By national policy, the citizens in the oil-rich regions of the country -e should enjoy preferential social and economic benefits directly accruing from the exploitation of this oil resource. In order to accommodate such a requirement, Uganda might need to set up the entire sector anew, with new institutions that will supervise, manage and develop the oil resource sustainably. New policies and strategies that will govern and regulate the operations of the new emerging policy and market will be necessary. 2.3. Affected sectors of the Economy An adequate supply of cheaper petroleum and gas products in the near future is bound to have tremendous impact on the economy as a whole. Considering that Uganda’s transport sector is heavily dependent of oil products such as (diesel, petrol, aviation fuel, fuel oil, kerosene, lubricants and bitumen, it is certainly one of the key sectors to be most influenced by burgeoning oil and gas production. That petroleum products are imported exposes the country’s economy to fluctuating 5 The Albertine Graben forms part of the Western arm of the East African Rift System. The Graben is a unique physiographic region comprising the rift escarpments, the block of the Rwenzori Mountains and an extensive graben. The area has several lakes including Albert, Edward and George(16). 6 Adjustment of year from 2014 to 2017 23 and exorbitant prices together with a significant level of uncertainty with regard to their availability. With commercial oil production in Uganda, the impact of oil price shocks and the erratic supply of imported petroleum products on the economy is expected to reduce. The country will also enjoy growing supplies of foreign exchange by importing some of its oil products and the resulting electricity. The electricity sector is yet another that will be heavily impacted. Oil products have traditionally been used in thermal power plants to supplement what the country generates from hydro power dams. Oil products are also the main fuel for most stand-alone power systems as well as well as off-grid electrification schemes. In summary, it is envisaged that the power and transport sectors will benefit most from the burgeoning oil industry. It is therefore reasonable to anticipate a surge in commerce, trade, production and the general economy once the commercial production kicks off. 3. EXISTING FRAMEWORK This section provides assessment and analysis of the existing policy framework. We outline only those legislative documents that are expected to impact new oil and gas sector, and have relevancy to increasing access to clean modern energy and environment protection. 3.1. Sector Acts and Policies The Electricity Act, 1999 The electricity act, establishes a strong foundation for which the entire electricity sub-sector is managed and regulated. The act mandates the establishment the sub-electricity sector as well as providing for formation of the responsible institutions. It is this act that established the Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) and unbundled the Uganda Electricity Board (UEB) to form three electricity companies to manage the electricity infrastructural utilities of Uganda. Under Part VII, Section 63 (1) and (2), sustainable development is discussed in inference to ‘Rural electrification’. The act allows for renewable energy power generation by utilising renewable energy resources such as solar photovoltaic power, mini hydropower and wind energy. The Energy Policy for Uganda, 2002 The policy goal is to meet the energy need of Uganda’s population for social and economic development in an environmentally sustainable manner. At a high level, the policy introduces the various energy sources available in Uganda, and the opportunities and challenges surrounding their exploitation, strategically. It also outlines the guiding principles for exploiting these very resources. At the time of its drafting, the petroleum industry/exploitation in Uganda was at its exploration stage. This exploration was in the Albertine region. The challenge of sustainable fossil energy development was therefore not given any attention in this policy, however environmental and sustainable development is explicitly discussed. 24 The Renewable Energy Policy of Uganda, 2007 The goal of this policy is to increase use and share of modern renewable energy from 4% to 61% of the total energy consumption by the year 2017. The main driver of this ambitious goal is: the ever-increasing price fossil fuel, the unpredictability of the future supplies of fossil fuels and the need for the energy sector to comply with the requirements of the Kyoto protocol. The renewable energy sources of Uganda include but are not limited to hydrological sources, wind, solar, biomass and geothermal. The estimated total electrical potential of the renewable energy sources is estimated at 5,300 MW. The large hydropower potential alone is estimated at about 2,000 MW, mainly from six potential hydro sites along river Nile. The six major hydro power sites are Bujagali 250MW, Kalangala 450 MW, Karuma (Kamdini) 650 MW, Ayago North 300 MW, Ayago South 250 MW, and Murchison falls 600 MW. The level of electrification is about 10% countrywide and 5% in rural areas. Interesting to note is that the policy too is silent on fossil fuel exploitation path and the sustainability challenges that would come along this path. The Petroleum Act, 2013 The purpose of this act is to operationalize the Oil and Gas Policy of Uganda. It is aimed at establishing an effective legal framework and institutional structures to ensure that the exploration, development and production of petroleum resources of Uganda is carried out in a sustainable manner that guarantees optimum benefits for all Ugandans, both the present and future generations. It creates a conducive environment for efficient management of the petroleum resources. Establishes institutions to manage the petroleum resources and regulate the petroleum activities. It regulates petroleum activities including licensing, exploration, development, production and cessation of petroleum activities or decommissioning, Ensuring public safety and protection of public health and the environment in petroleum activities. It supports the development of state participation and national content in the petroleum industry in Uganda and ensures transparency and accountability in the conduct of all activities regulated under this act. The National Oil and Gas Policy, 2008 (NOGP) The NOGP confirms government of Uganda’s intention to the extraction and exploitation the oil and gas reserves found on the Albertine Graben and anywhere else in the country. The goals of this policy include; Promotion of valuable utilization of the country’s oil and gas resources, promotion of the development of suitable transport and storage solutions which give good value to the country’s oil and gas resources and ensuring that oil and gas activities are undertaken in a manner that conserves the environment and biodiversity. Oil and Gas Revenue Management policy, 2012 (OGRMP) The policy provides details on how the anticipated revenues shall be managed and integrated into the existing Government system, with a view of managing the overall impact of these revenues on the economy. The policy establishes an appropriate framework to aid the sustainable management of the oil and gas revenues. It calls for the highest level of transparency and accountability in the management of oil and gas revenue and gives the institutional and governance structures to be used to achieve it. Furthermore, it promotes harmony and social cohesion, by providing for a mechanism for sharing royalty revenues with local governments within the oil producing region. The document was developed in fulfilment of the NOGP requirement. 25 Since oil revenues and their management present opportunities as well as unique policy challenge, the key of the OGRMP is to avoid the so called resource curse7 The National Environment Act, Cap 153 (1995) The Act provides for the planning requirement, preventive measures, enforcement actions and control mechanism during execution of projects that are likely to impact on the environment. The Act established NEMA as the corporate body mandated to co-ordinate monitoring and enforcement of environmental standards. According to section 57(1) of the Act, no person shall discharge hazardous substances, chemical, oil or mixture containing oil in any waters or other segment of environment except in accordance with guidelines prescribed by NEMA. Section 4(3)(c) requires that an on-going activity shall be subjected to an environmental audit in accordance with section 23 of the Act while section 4(3)(d) requires that an on-going activity undertakes environmental monitoring in accordance with section 24 of the Act. Section 3(2) (g) addresses the issue of establishing adequate environmental standards and to monitor changes on environmental quality. Section 3(2) (k) ensures that the cost of pollution will be borne by the polluter. 3.2. Sector Programs and Initiatives a) Strategic Environmental Assessment of Oil and Gas Activities (SEA), 2013 The objective of SEA was to ensure that the environmental issues associated with the Oil and Gas sector are considered and integrated into regulations, major decisions connected to policies, plans and programmes (PPP) and specific strategic aspects related to petroleum activities at the earliest stage in order to achieve the goals of the NOGP. With regard to Uganda, the SEA is aimed at supporting sustainable development, which defines the environment as comprising of the physical environment, cultural heritage and socio-economic effects due to petroleum-related activities in the Albertine Graben. b) SE4ALL The sustainable Energy for All initiative is a multi-stakeholder partnership amongst governments, the private sector and civil society. Launched by the UN Secretary General in 2011, it has three inter-linked objectives to be achieved by 2030: Ensure universal access to modern energy services, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency and double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. All the three objectives are equally important and reinforce each other in important ways. c) Grid Development Plan 2011-2027 A review of the GDevP shows an extensive plan by government to evacuate power from Albertine Graben region that will be generated by the resultant oil. A 400kV transmission line is planned. 7Resource curse is phenomenon through which several economic, institutional and political economy transmission mechanisms, oil and gas revenues translate into economic stagnation and waste. 26 Table 3-1: Proposed/Planned thermal power plants and associated power lines Plant Ref. Capacity (MW) Interconnection from power plant Gas– CCGT, Albertine A 1500 (2X750) 400kV DCST-Quadruple Albertine region to Nakasongola HFO, Albertine A 1500 (2X750) Gas – CCGT, Albertine B 1500 (2X750) Mputa – Hoima – Kafu 400kV DCST- Quadruple. Karuma – Kafu – Nakasongola - Kawanda Second line (400kV DCST Quadruple) Karuma – Lira – Opuyo – Tororo second line , 400kV DCST bundled HFO, Albertine B 1500 (2X750) 400kV DCST-Bundle Nakasongola- Kawanda HFO, Albertine B 1500 (2X750) 400kV DCST-Bundle Nakasongola- Kawanda Source: GDevP, 2015 3.3. Analysing the gaps and grey areas within the policy frameworks (NT/AK) A summary of the reviewed legal framework documents of Uganda energy sector is outlined in Table 3-2. It can be noted that the founding policies in the sector have semblance of strong sustainability. This is the case because the country’s energy resources are mainly of the renewable nature, and hence the focus of these documents. The legal frameworks establish a strong mindedness towards developing the energy sector in a sustainable manner, even with the oil and gas sector. Key interest was noted to be put on utilising the renewable energy base of Uganda as opposed to fossil fuel. However, still as shown by the table some these legal documents did not have a clear strategy and plan of how sustainability of the energy and environment sector will be achieved. Table 3-2: Summary of Reviewed Policies Document Key areas addressed Sustainable development approached Existence of a clear strategy and plan of how to achieve SD Modern energy access Fair share of per capita end use Emphasis on clean and renewable energy 27 Energy Policy YES YES YES YES YES Renewable Energy policy YES YES YES YES YES Electricity Act YES NO YES NO YES National Environment Act NO NO NO YES YES National Oil and Gas Policy NO NO NO YES NO Petroleum Act NO NO NO YES NO Oil and Gas Revenue Management Policy NO YES NO YES NO Source: Compiled by Author 4. SUSTAINABILITY OF THE ENERGY SECTOR 4.1. CO2 Emissions Uganda’s CO2 emissions compared to the rest of the world is very low, accounting only 0.1% tCO2. Figure 4-1 shows the prognosis of CO2 emissions in Uganda since the year 1980. The contribution of CO2 emissions from thermal power plants can be noticed by an increase between 2005 and 2012 when Aggreko I,II&III8 where commissioned. Figure 4-1: kgCO2 in Uganda Source: CIA country data 8Most of the Aggreko Thermal power plants have since been decommissioned. Currently 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 Uganda 28 4.2. Sustainability We understand ‘sustainability’ in context of energy supply and consumption by attempting to define sustainable energy development. Energy and therefore adequate energy supply is fundamental to human and society development. “Energy is golden thread that connects economic growth, increased social equity, and an environment that allows the world to thrive,” - UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Energy is universally regarded the centre of any human activity and it is required for development, as in turn energy consumption patterns influence development patterns It influences on production processes and service delivery. Energy is argued to be at the centre of any human activity as it is in turn influence development patterns. On the other hand, ‘development’ is a value word, implying a change that is desirable, - usually dictated upon by goals or objectives. Development depends on what social goals are being advocated by government and development agencies or people. If we therefore take development to be a vector (D) of desirable social objectives, such as a list of social objectives which society/communities seeks to achieve or maximize, then the elements of this vector might include: (1) increasing income (2) improvement of health (3) education (4) access to resources (5) basic needs freedom and etc. We propose a mathematical expression incorporating all the above as in equation 1 below. 𝐷(𝑥1, 𝑥2, 𝑥3, … 𝑥𝑛) (1) Where: D is the development vector and, 𝑥1x, 𝑥2x are elements of the vector D (desirable social objectives) Achieving these goals requires time, thus, time becomes the basis upon which all factors are measured, whether the goals are reached or not. Therefore, modifying the vector (D) as in equation 2; indicating the changes that would be achieve with a small change in time. In this case Sustainable development is where the development vector does not decrease overtime. 𝜕𝐷(𝑡) 𝜕𝑡 > 0 (2) Environmental economics however holds that to achieve satisfactory development, we need to bear in mind that our share of natural resources available should be equitable, efficient and equal to support across generational existence. In this sense, sustainability is achieved if we bear in mind that the earth’s resources are finite and our actions impact the environment. The simple objectives of sustainable energy development can then be summarized as; (1) improving quality of final energy, (2) a fair share of per capita energy use and (3) access to energy resources and benefits. Robert Repetto’s in his definition of Sustainable development declared “Sustainable development is a development strategy that manages all assets, natural resources, and human resources as well as financial and physical assets for increasing long term wealth and well-being. Sustainable development, as a goal rejects policies and practices that support current living standards by depleting the productive base, including natural resources and that leave future generations with poorer prospects and greater risks than our own.” – (Repetto, 1986 p15). His definition gives more 29 clarity and understanding to the Brundtland9 Commission’s definition of Sustainable development that specificies “Social, Economic and Environment” aspects being inter-linked. Understanding the concept of sustainability would therefore mean making policies that ensure and support equity, efficiency, and equality a resources. At the same time, protection of the environment should be put into consideration as society strives to achieve her development objectives. For Uganda, this policy framework exists; but there remain uncertainties over whether these well-intentioned policies will be fully implemented. In the discussion of sustainable energy in Uganda, it should be noted that there is a very high dependency of the energy sector on biomass. This needs very urgent attention. The escalating rate of clearing vegetation for cooking and charcoal means that the national carbon sink is steadily dwindling. One suggestion to counter this trend is to have gas from Uganda’s oil replace biomass as the primary fuel for cooking in households. Conservation of vegetation cover in Uganda will play a pivotal role in managing tour country’s carbon footprint and in turn ensuring sustainable energy development. 4.3. Vulnerability of energy systems in Uganda a) High dependence on biomass energy resource Of the TPES, electricity contributes 1.3%, fossil fuels 8.7% with 90% coming from biomass resources. This high dependence and escalated harvesting of biomass puts a lot of stress on the country’s natural vegetation and has resulted in massive deforestation in many parts of the country. This pattern of energy consumption is a major threat to the country’s economic development. b) Hydropower generation sensitivity to rainfall variations Reliance on a large hydrological power generation resources has its pros and cons. Because Uganda’s hydropower generation is highly dependent on the amount of water-flow in the rivers, seasonal changes in the amount of rainfall directly affect the power generated. In many cases, this causes load shedding and in certain instances has caused completely power cut-offs. Electricity production in Uganda is therefore highly vulnerable to climate variability. c) High Investment Costs for the Large-Hydro Power Plants Uganda is looking to build more large hydro power plants to further boost its power production capacity. Much as this is a welcome development, the investment costs of these power plants are massive, so much that the country cannot fund them. The alternative is international financing which attracts interest and hence a high cost per unit of power produced. That is not to mention a growing national debt burden that might adversely affect the national economy and future power projects financing. 9 The Brundtland Commission’s brief definition of sustainable development as the “ability to make development sustainable—to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” 30 d) Low income per capita and Electricity access challenges The cost of extending the transmission grid remains prohibitively expensive. Even where the grid has been extend to some parts of the country, owing to low levels of economic activity and hence low incomes, the intended beneficiaries might not afford to pay for the electricity. 5. CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATION The paper draws conclusions based on discussions of the policy framework, development trends and challenges faced by the energy market in Uganda. It is observed that Uganda’s installed capacity increased two folds over the last seven years to stand at 818.5MW in 2012. The annual growth rate of the country’s installed capacity set to increase twice as much as it is currently. The policy review reveals that the country is equipped with appropriate and adequate policy instruments to keep the energy development on a sustainable path, even with this emerging sector. However, there remain uncertainties over with strategies and implementation plans for the policies. And given the reliance of the country on biomass, the management of this resource will determine whether or not the country stays on course of sustainable energy development. REFERENCES 1. van der Plas, Robert J. and Kyezira, A.Target Market Analysis, Uganda's Small Hydro Energy Market. Frankfurt : GIZ GmbH, 2009. 2. Petroleum Exploration and Production Department. [Online] 6 March 2014. [Cited: 26 April 2014.] http://www.petroleum.go.ug/page.php?k=curnews&id=80. 3. UETCL.Grid Development Plan 2011 -2017. Kampala : Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited, 2011. 4. MEMD.Annual Energy Report. Kampala : Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, 2010. 5. —. Energy and Mineral Sector Peformance Report . Kampala : Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, 2013. 6. —. Energy Policy. Kampala : Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, 2002. 7. —. Renewable Energy Policy. Kampala : Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, 2007. 8. —. Annual Report. Kampala : MEMD, 2011. 9. —. Rural Electrification Strategy Plan. Kampala : Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, 2001. 10. MFPED.Poverty Eradication Action Plan. Kampala : Ministry of Finance and Mineral Development, 2002. 11. OECD/IEA.WEO-2010: Energy Poverty -How to make modern energy access universal? s.l. : IEA, 2010. 12. REA.Stategic Plan 2005/6-2011/12. Kampala : Rural Electricity Agency , 2006. Policy. 13. WorldBank.The Little Data Book on Africa. s.l. : The World Bank, 2011. 14. UN-Energy Africa.Energy for Sustainable Developement: Policy Option for Africa. December 2010. 15. MFPED.Oil and Gas Revenue Management Policy. Kampala : Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, 2012. 31 Developing self-sustainable solar-run community schools: Case study from Light of Hope’s digital school in Bangladesh Arif Md. Waliullah Bhuiyan Light of Hope, H#282, R#19/C, Mohakhali DOHS, Dhaka – 1206, Bangladesh bhuiyan.waliullah@gmail.com ABSTRACT There are about 50,000 primary schools in Bangladesh located in off-grid areas where communities around those schools have limited access to information, opportunity to get internet based services. The main objective of the study was to develop a financially self-sustainable solar-run school model for developing countries that will create employment opportunity, generate revenue besides providing quality education to the children. Survey was conducted initially to understand the market demand for mobile charging, internet services and printing facility in rural Bangladesh. Financial analysis is conducted based on the initial market research and field research data. ‘Light of Hope’ – a tech-based educational organization has developed world’s lowest energy consuming multimedia classroom solution and installed the system in two primary schools in off-grid and semi-off-grid areas. Each school requires an investment of Euro 1370 that will generate yearly revenue of Euro 1093 from mobile charging, internet-based services and printing. The estimated ROI is 8 years which also makes it financially attractive. KEYWORDS Solar system, multimedia classroom, e-education, internet-based service, off-grid. INTRODUCTION While Bangladesh is on track to achieve universal primary education by the end of 2015 to meet the MDG target, quality of the education services and the outcomes are still very low. New global target or Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are giving higher priority on the quality of the education. Improving the quality of education requires long term commitment and large government funding for infrastructure development, teacher capacity development and inclusion of technology at the school level. Bangladesh government allocation for education in the budget is decreasing over the years. Government of Bangladesh spends only 1.8% of the GDP on education whereas countries like Vietnam spent 6.3%. (Habib, 2015) Investment on technology in education is still a far cry for Bangladesh because of its high initial investment and consequent operation and maintenance cost. Only 65% of the population has access to electricity while over 40,000 primary schools are located in off-grid areas and don’t have electricity connection. While lack of electricity poses a major treat in providing ICT-based quality education in rural areas, it also opens up an opportunity to develop school-based business model to ensure quality education and also cover the operational and maintenance cost of the provided technology to the schools. Light of Hope – tech-based non-profit develops an innovative solar-run multimedia classroom solution for rural off-grid schools capable to provide other services like mobile charging, 2 internet use, printing to develop revenue for schools. Light of Hope engineers developed the solar- run system and installed in 3 different schools. Market research on the various service demands is conducted. Financial analysis on the school business model shows promising signs as recovery of the initial investment and covering O&M costs seems viable. 32 METHODOLOGY The action research under Light of Hope’s ‘Digital School Project’ was initiated in March 2014. The research and operation team consists of engineers, educators, project management professional and university students. The overall work was divided into three major parts – development of the solar-run multimedia classroom solution, collection, development of educational contents and capacity building training to the teachers and finally developing the business model for the schools depending on the initial market survey conducted on mobile charging, internet and printing services at the community. Based on the initial solar-run classroom design development and available educational contents three pilot schools are supported. Experience and learning from the pilot is also being considered at the business model development and potential future expansion of the project. DIGITAL SCHOOL PROJECT The overall objective of Digital School project is to strengthen the capacity of the rural schools to provide quality education to the children. Light of Hope provides necessary technical, management and training supports to the local schools to develop their own revenue generation business model and quality education services. The development of the overall project is on-going and so far Light of Hope through its pilot schools realized the project’s tremendous opportunity to scale-up a sustainable country-wide model in Bangladesh that also has potential to be replicated in other developing and under-developed countries too. The different steps and components of the ‘Digital School Project’ are briefly covered along with the business model in sub-sequent sections. Formulation of Digital School project concept Coming back from their engineering background, the Light of Hope founders wanted to build a solar-system coupled with multimedia classroom solution with necessary e-educational contents to ensure the schools in off-grid rural areas have access to modern ICT-based education services. While designing of the system was the prime part of their task, making the whole system self- sustainable was another underlying objective. To the working team, the examples and business models for revenue generation from solar-system through services like mobile charging, solar lantern charging was available. What was absent however is how this revenue generation activities could be coupled with the school so that the school itself can generate revenue to cover the operational and maintenance cost of its multimedia classroom. Developing a low energy consuming multimedia classroom solution The multimedia classroom should have a laptop (computing device), projector, sound box, LED lights with enough battery backup to run the system for 4 hours. Light of Hope engineers looked into different low energy consuming products available in the market. Both the local and international markets are explored to have a comprehensive solution that is replicable in large scale. The comparison between a conventional multimedia classroom system and Light of Hope’s solution shows the difference in energy requirement for both the systems. 3 33 Because of this large difference in energy consumption, government and other organizations in Bangladesh has a perception that solar-run multimedia classroom requires high initial investment which is one of the main reasons why the off-grid schools are not considered to be digitalized. Light of Hope with their low energy consuming solutions proves that a very low initial investment (less than 500 euro) is sufficient to have a solar system to support the multimedia classroom. Develop e-education database for primary level The next step is to provide all the necessary educational contents at the laptop for the teachers to take the classes with multimedia projector. Although developing e-educational contents for secondary and higher secondary level was getting quite momentum in Bangladesh, finding educational contents for primary level was a daunting task. First of all, not many organizations were involved in this and not many contents were available. So Light of Hope employed 30 volunteers for 3 months to find out what is available in Bangladesh and then outside. Hundreds of videos on different science and other topics were downloaded from the internet and then translated into Bengali according to the National Curriculum. Currently Light of Hope posses the largest database of primary level contents in Bangladesh. It partnered with national and international NGOs like BRAC, Save the Children to collect many e-educational contents. All the contents are provided according to class, subject and topic. Capacity building of the rural school teachers In the rural areas, many teachers didn’t even see a laptop. Light of Hope provides basic computer skill training, teaches method on how to use e-educational materials in the classroom to stimulate interest and ensure engagement Refresher training is very important for the teachers to retain their knowledge of the initial training and to provide feedback on challenges to the Light of Hope team. Ensuring continuous technical support Light of Hope will provide rigorous and quick after-sale support for the solar system to the schools and other technical support for the laptops and other equipments so that any problem can be solved with minimum disruption at the classroom learning. In case of longer servicing time, Light of Hope retained a certain percentage of laptops (usually 10% of the total laptop in the schools) as backup. These are called ‘Buffer Laptop’. The buffer laptops already have all the software, e- educational materials needed to conduct the classroom teaching. The buffer laptops will be delivered to the schools after it’s identified that the school’s laptop requires more than a week to service. MAKING ‘DIGITAL SCHOOLS’ SUSTAINABLE Light of Hope’s self-sustainable primary school business model is unique in many ways. Each school will have one or several income generation activities supported by the solar system. 34 Different options are being considered to ensure regular revenue generation from the school to cover the operational and maintenance cost of the multimedia classroom system. The options for individual schools depend on the existing context of the locality, demand of different services and available support to continue the operation of the provided services. Services like mobile charging, internet use, printing etc. are few options those are under consideration. The generated revenue and the feasibility and likelihood of making the service profitable will reflect on the financial analysis of the investment and revenue. Light of Hope made several hypothetical scenarios to see the business viability of the provided services. Depending on several criteria like availability of the electricity at the locality, population, mobile and internet network, average household income at the surrounding locality, livelihood options for households etc. the revenue will vary from school to school. The market research conducted by Light of Hope team at the coastal village in Noakhali district of Bangladesh shows that in coastal off-grid areas an average adult who owns a mobile phone spends about 240 hours a year just to walk to the far market to charge his mobile. Villagers also travel to city to in expense of travel cost, service cost and time to get various internet based services provided by government. The existing market condition allows initiating several income generation activities like mobile charging, internet café where people can use internet and get other internet-based services, printing etc. are incorporated with the school’s solar system. These activities will earn enough revenue to cover the operational and replacement cost of the laptop, battery, other equipment and the salary of the operator. Financial analysis of Digital School intervention The financial analysis of the school intervention shows encouraging potential for covering the operation and maintenance cost and recover of the initial investment at the school in off-grid areas. Interventions like mobile charging, internet use, printing are considered. The initial investment, revenue and operation cost estimation for one school is provided below: The total initial investment for each school is 1370 euro. The budget for solar system includes cost for solar panel, battery, charge controller, LED lights and other components. Investment may slightly vary with price change of individual components. With continuous improvement of technology in terms of efficiency the price is likely to decrease in future. 35 The yearly operation cost is 840 euro which includes the salary of the local operator and the internet bill. The maintenance costs have different frequency ranging from 5 to 10 years for different components. Any maintenance cost before the projected frequency will be covered by the warranty service provided by the manufacturer or the local distributor. The detail of the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost for a single school is provided below in Table 3. The revenue from each school through various services depend on different factors like potential customer size, frequency of service, duration of service period in a year etc. Service charges for different services are estimated to be lower than the existing market price to attract more customers. Incentives like time savings and additional expenditure (e.g travel cost to the service point) will also ensure that the school will get regular customer. The yearly income for different services provided from the school is provided below in Table 4. The revenue model will vary depending on the locality. For example, in on-gird or semi-on-gird areas there will be no income from mobile charge as the households can charge their mobiles at their homes. Similarly in semi-urban areas, the demand for internet based services is likely to be higher compared to the rural areas. Light of Hope’s financial model shows the return on investment (ROI) is 8 year considering zero percent interest rate over the investment. However, there is a negative cash flow on 10th year due to replacement cost for laptop and battery. But after that period, the cash flow is always positive. The financial projection for the school is already encouraging and with increased revenue from services it could be financially attractive for government and other organizations to invest under social development project. 36 MAJOR CHALLENGES During last one year of intervention Light of Hope faces various challenges from programme design point of view and the intervention strategy. Initial challenges were to design the compatible low-cost solar system design, finding and developing educational materials etc. Capacity development of the local teachers on using the laptop and taking class with educational contents is still a major challenge. An appropriate training design and the cost for an effective training are very high. Funding for the capacity building training of the teachers is inadequate and financially non-returnable although it contributes significantly on the improvement of the education service delivered at the school. Analyzing the existing market demand for the services provided from the school is another challenge and requires caution during the investment. Training up the local operator to provide various services also required for customer satisfaction which is directly linked with the potential revenue generation. Monitoring and evaluation of the multimedia classroom activity is another area of concern. In order to ensure that regular class is taking place using the multimedia setup, Light of Hope is planning to develop software that will keep track of the number of hours the teachers are actually using the setup which will be automatically uploaded to the central server online. This will significantly reduce the monitoring cost of the project. For evaluating the outcome of the digital school, Light of Hope is developing a standard tool that will check the improvement of children learning over the period of time. CONCLUSION Delivering quality education comes at a cost with high investment on infrastructure, technology, capacity building of teachers etc. which is often difficult for a government in a developing country. Light of Hope intended to develop a low-cost solution with potential income generation activity from the school to reduce that burden on investment and operation and maintenance cost. The first phase of the intervention is already completed with a complete setup with 3 pilot schools currently running proves the system’s efficiency. The second phase will start soon with income generating services in school and the financial analysis looks attractive. Once successfully completed in 37 Bangladesh, Light of Hope’s Digital School project can be replicated in other developing countries with similar context, especially in South-Asia and Africa. REFERENCE 1. Habib, W. B. (2015, June 05). The Daily Star. Retrieved July 4, 2015, from http://www.thedailystar.net: http://www.thedailystar.net/business/allocation-education-still- inadequate-92479 http://www.thedailystar.net/business/allocation-education-still-inadequate-92479 http://www.thedailystar.net/business/allocation-education-still-inadequate-92479 38 Scheme for Promoting Biodiesel Production in Indonesia Fumi Harahap Division of Energy and Climate Studies KTH Royal Institute of Technology School of Industrial Engineering and Management Brinellvägen 68, SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden Email: harahap@kth.se This paper is submitted for participation in workshop "Addressing Resilience and Sustainability in Energy Management - 25 years of development oriented studies at the University of Flensburg“ 21-25 September 2015 ABSTRACT In the last decade, the Government of Indonesia has put considerable effort to reduce enormous burden to the country’s economy caused by energy subsidy. The past subsidy structure had failed to execute the social considerations idea to provide basic need at a price affordable to the poor, on the contrary benefiting mostly the richest. Phasing out fossil fuel subsidy becomes important agenda of the government for better- targeted subsidies and providing other social supports in particular for the low-income groups. Since January 2015, GoI maintains subsidy for diesel, kerosene and electricity while eliminating subsidy for gasoline. As a net oil importer country, fuel subsidy cost correlates with US Dollar (USD) – Indonesian rupiah (IDR) exchange rate due to the reflection of domestic market price to international price in USD. In an unwell adjusted retail price, a weakening of IDR increases the domestic market price, results to higher subsidy cost. Development of national biodiesel industry becomes urgent to restrict higher price imported fossil fuel-based diesel for domestic use. This study evaluates current policy instruments governing promotion of biodiesel production for domestic use. It performs economic analysis to compare biodiesel production cost against diesel retail price and biodiesel producer price. Sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate feasibility of Crude Palm Oil Supporting Fund (CSF) that may become available to promote biodiesel expansion at high feedstock price while meeting biodiesel target in 2015. The results show that biodiesel industry is currently benefited from attractive biodiesel producer price and low feedstock price. To certain extent of CPO price, CSF is feasible to cover the price gap between biodiesel production cost and diesel price at high CPO price. The study indicates that the feasibility would depend on government decision to allocate the fund. While the adoption of CFS is expected to boost biodiesel production for domestic use, decline in export volume appears to increase uncertainty of fund available. Key words: biodiesel production cost, crude palm oil price, diesel retail price, subsidy INTRODUCTION Energy subsidy has been place in Indonesia since the late 1970s, affected by first oil price shock [1], [2]. Constitutional Article 33 (3) specifies that the natural resources is controlled by the state and shall be used to the greatest benefit of the people. This serves as prerequisite to subsiding energy below the market prices [1]. Between 2007 and 2014, fossil fuel subsidies have consumed on average of 11% of state expenditure or 70% from total subsidy allocation [3], see Figure 2, demonstrating considerable burden for the country’s economy. The social considerations idea to mailto:harahap@kth.se 39 provide basic need at a price affordable to the poor, was distorted to benefiting mostly the richest [4], [5]. Figure 2 Fuel subsidy expenditure Source: [3] Note: Exchange rate 2010 constant value USD 1 = IDR 8,991 [6] The GDP growth of 5.5% in 2013 [3] and rapid growing of middle class has led to high fuel demand in Indonesia. This has forced Government of Indonesia (GoI) to allocate significant amount of money to cover the discrepancy between international and domestic fuel prices. Until the end of 2014, GoI provided subsidy for petroleum products i.e. gasoline (premium), diesel (minyak solar) and kerosene (minyak bakar); and electricity. After that, only subsidy for diesel, kerosene and electricity are appeared in the state budget (Figure 3). The country energy subsidy policy is mostly concentrated on consumer price in the form of under- pricing of energy, although tax incentive for producer exists in few cases [7]. The price discrepancy between domestic retail price and economic price10 is paid to Pertamina – the state owned oil enterprise that receives mandate to provide and distribute subsidised fuels in Indonesia [4]. Figure 3 draws subsidy commodities and the subsidy costs reflected in the national budget. 10 The economic price consists of four components: (1) the border wholesale price of refined products referring to Mid Oil Platt’s Singapore (MOPS); (2) costs of transportation, storage and distribution; (3) value added tax and fuel tax; and (4) profit margin of retail stations.” [4] 8% 5% 10% 10% 11% 12% 16% 16% 60% 47% 62% 67% 73% 81% 87% 85% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 M il li o n U S D Cost of energy subsidy (mill USD) Central state expenditure (mill USD) % of fuel subsidy to national expenditure % of fuel subsidy to total subsidy 40 Figure 3 Cost of fuel and non-fuel subsides reflected in national budget 2012-2015 Source: [3], [8] Note: * 2015 revised budget following the presidential election in October 2014 The massive subsidies reduce government’s fiscal space to promote investment in infrastructure and human capital and also ability to provide better targeted subsidies and other social supports in particular for the low-income groups [4]. Dartanto (2013) outlines few studies that discussed the adverse impact of cutting subsidies which is mostly perceived by the low-income groups. Fuel spending demonstrates 5% of total spending of the poorest households [5]. An increase of $0.25 per liter in the price of fuel products reduced the household real income by 17.3% in Ghana and 12.1% in Jordan [9] causes reduction of the purchasing power. The adverse impact can be minimised through effective compensation e.g. direct cash transfer, transferring fuel subsidies from middle income to poor households [4], [10]. Indonesia energy agenda focuses on energy independence by diverting the export volume to domestic supply and optimises the energy balance between fossil and non-fossil fuel. The future energy matrix remains with the domination of fossil energy despite the spur of renewable share to at least 23% in 2025 and 31% in 2050 (see Figure 4). Reduce fossil oil consumption is an important agenda of the ruling government together with phasing out energy subsidy. Liquid biofuels, viz. bioethanol and biodiesel, offer attractive solution to substitute fossil oil, expected to contribute 5% in renewable energy share by 2025. Biofuel mandate (for transport, industry, commercial and power sectors) in the form of progressive blending rate to fuel products have been enacted since 2008 through the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) Regulation 32/2008 jo. 12/2015. The regulation was formulated to restrict higher price oil imports for domestic use which had caused current budget deficit [11]. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015* Fuel i.e. petroleum, biofuel, LPG Electricity Food Fertilizer Seed Public Service Obligation Lending program Tax 41 2013 Total primary demand: 130 MTOE 2025 Total primary demand: 400 MTOE 2050 Total primary demand: 1,000 MTOE Figure 4 Indonesia energy matrix present and future The figure excludes biomass for non-energy used Source: [6], National Energy Policy (Government Regulation 79/2014) The promotion of industrial scale production and the use of liquid biofuels in Indonesia are backed up by financial support from the government through various policies. Despite the establishment of a significant biodiesel production in the country in the past few years, the potential is much larger since Indonesia is responsible for more than half of the world’s palm oil production totalling 29 Mton of crude palm oil (CPO) in 2014 [12]. Nevertheless, meeting these targets has been challenging. In 2014, approximately 1.1 billion liters were used domestically and 1.3 billion liters were exported [13]. That resulted to 6.7% of domestic biodiesel blend rate which had failed to meet the 10% target for transport sector in 2014. Currently 13% of total CPO produced in Indonesia is being used for biodiesel production in the country [12], [14]. A domestic use of a larger share of the CPO presently being export could contribute to reduce dependence on fossil fuel import [15]. MEMR Regulation 12/2025 aims at achieving 30% biodiesel blending rate for the targeted sectors by 2025, equivalent to 11 folds from domestic biodiesel consumption in 2014, illustrating increased ambition to biodiesel deployment. Biodiesel production is vulnerable to oil and feedstock prices. In 2007, decline of oil price and the spike of palm oil feedstock price caused 17 biodiesel companies to have reduced or temporarily suspended their production and led to deviation of biofuel production cost proportionate to petroleum fuel and losing government’s will to support the industry [2], [16]. Setting attractive price mechanism could create supportive environment for biofuels which could lead to materialising the mandate. Through MEMR Regulation 3239/2015 government regulates monthly biodiesel market price, subject to evaluation of at least every 6 months’ time. Further encouragement to divert export volume to domestic supply is by imposing levy to palm oil industries exporting the products, named as CPO Supporting Fund (CSF). The fund is partly dedicated to cover the gap between diesel retail price and biodiesel producer price (Presidential Regulation 61/2015). The question is then whether the existing policy instruments governing biodiesel production including the price structure, retrench state expenditure can be confirmed. This study aims at examining both aforementioned schemes that promotes biodiesel in the country. It performs price-cost comparison of: (1) biodiesel production cost presented by the life cycle cost, (2) biodiesel producer price and (3) diesel retail price. Also, it assesses the impact of CPO price Rene wable energ y, 5% Oil, 46% Coal, 31% Natur al gas, 19% Rene wable energ y, 23% Oil, 25% Coal, 30% Natur al gas, 22% Rene wable energ y, 31% Oil, 20% Coal, 25% Natur al gas, 24% 42 fluctuation to biodiesel production cost to estimate the price gap between biodiesel production cost and diesel retail price to evaluate the feasibility of CSF scheme to cover that gap. The remaining chapters are organised as follows. Part 2 describes materials and method used in this article comprises the historical of energy subsidy reform to understand the level of success and the government eagerness to overcome budget deficit; projection of biodiesel consumption; policy instruments to stimulate biodiesel production at different level of its supply chain; and mathematical methods used in cost analysis. Part 3 discusses main findings, performs cost sensitivity and analyses the government support. Part 5 provides some concluding remarks. MATERIALS AND METHOD Energy Subsidy Reform The urgency of gradually removing the fuel subsidies was first highlighted in the National Development Programme 2000-2004. Using that as a basis, GoI took the first initiative on deregulating the subsidy from domestic retail fuel prices and at the same time adopting scheme to limit the risk of increase in poverty due to phasing out the fuel subsidies targeting the low income groups, through the adoption of Presidential Decree 135/2000. The decree enacted compensation fund in form of direct cash distributed to low income households, recorded the state spending of IDR million 800 in 2000 and IDR trillion 4.4 in 2003 [17]. Since 2000, various adjustments of retail fuel prices to the fluctuation of international prices are undertaken to reduce subsidy costs (see Figure 5), with numerous level of success [1], [4]. Also, GoI continues to adopt the compensation programme for the poor which includes cash transfer, health insurance, education subsidies and also rural infrastructure development between 2005 to 2008 [4]. Figure 5 Domestic fuel prices of gasoline, kerosene and diesel oil and Indonesia Crude Oil Price (ICP) 2000 – 2013 Source: [6] The subsidy costs in Indonesia is vastly exposed to oil market price and exchange rate fluctuations [1]. In the high oil price, government has to bear the incremental cost, while in the low oil price, government cuts the retail price. The recent momentous subsidy cut on gasoline fuel in November 2014 demonstrates government’s strong willingness to allocate the state budget for the better 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 U S D p er b a rr el Gasoline Kerosene Diesel oil (ADO) Crude price (ICP) 43 purpose. The adoption of incremental change approach in subsidy reform by GoI, demonstrates the promotion of a better allocating subsidy scheme. Figure 2 shows 44% reduction of fuel subsidy and 30% increase of non-fuel subsidy. Table 3 summarises subsidy reforms since the past 15 years. Table 3 Summary of subsidy reforms since the past 15 years 1998 Fuel price hike as a consequence of global oil crisis, led to riots. This was coincided with government reformation. 2000 The National Development Program 2000-2004 indicated the need to gradually cut the fuel subsidies that are false targeted by 2004. In the program, government introduced the mechanism to compensate the fuel subsidy cut targeting low-income households (Presidential Decree 135/2000). The cash transfer realisation started later in 2005. 2001 Presidential Decree 45/2001 deregulated the retail fuel prices for industries to gradually equalising to the level of international prices. 2003 Alignment of domestic petroleum prices to international market prices led to public protest due to poor communication. Government had to roll back most of the increase. 2005 Two large fuel price hikes in February and October (adoption of Presidential Regulation 22/2005 and 55/2005), respectively more than double for gasoline and nearly triple for diesel compared to 2003. Presidential Instruction 12/2005 defined the mechanism of cash transfer (Bantuan Langsung Tunai) distribution. Compensation to mitigate the impact of subsidy cut in the form of cash payment of USD 10/month to 19 million low-income individuals. The program continues until now at the level of USD 20/month. 2008 Phased out subsidy to large industrial electricity consumers and subsidy is restricted for public transport and motorcycle. Gasoline price rose up by 25% while diesel by 21% compared to 2005. 2010 House of representative agreed to raise fuel subsidy budget. 2013 The MEMR Regulation 1/2013 controls subsidised fuel by prohibiting the use in government fleet vehicles, mining activities and plantation activities (except community and individual owned plantation). 2014 Significant fuel price adjustment following the presidential election. Gasoline price rose up by 23% while diesel by 26% compared to 2005. Relatively small community resistance, due to good communication and supports from the economists. 2015 Effective from January 2015 GoI only maintains subsidy for diesel and kerosene (MEMR Regulation 39/2014). Fuel prices have been adjusted four times between January to March 2015 to the global oil price. After the inauguration of the new government in October 2014, the initial state budget was revised to accommodate their prioritised programs. Total state expenditure presents the reduction of 2.2% (or IDR 44,594 mill ~ USD 3.747 mill11) from the initial budget. The reduction comes from savings made of phasing out fuel subsidies totalling IDR 186,267 mill ~ USD 15.653 mill, of which 65% (or IDR 120,475 mill ~ USD 10.124 mill) is reserved for prioritised programs i.e. (1) development of key sectors e.g. food, energy, maritime, tourism, industry; (2) fulfilment of basic citizens obligations e.g. education and health; (3) reduction of gap in income distribution of residents; (4) infrastructure development to improve connectivity [3]. 11 Exchange rate 1 USD = 11,900 IDR [3] 44 Future Biodiesel Consumption The recent regulation defines increase of 2.5 and 7.8 folds respectively in 2015 and 2020 from current biodiesel domestic use, see Table 4. Green line drawn in Figure 3 presents consumption target from 2012 to 2014 which were significantly above the actual consumption (green bar), caused by high biodiesel export volume (red bar). Table 4 Projected Diesel consumption, biodiesel consumption and CPO use 2015 – 2025 Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (1) Diesel consumption (bill liters) 32.7 34.3 35.9 37.6 39.4 41.2 43.2 45.3 47.4 49.7 52 54.5 (2) Biodiesel blending rate (%) 15% 20% 23% 25% 28% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% (3) Biodiesel (bill liters) 1.6 5.6 7.8 9.2 10.7 12.4 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.2 17 17.8 (4) CPO use (mill ton) 3.2 6.2 8.6 10.2 11.9 13.7 15.6 16.4 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.7 Note: (2) Biodiesel blending rate is based on MEMR Regulation 12/2015, highlighted value is stated in the regulation, others are interpolated. (3) & (4) calculated based on diesel consumption data from [18] using 5% of annual increase. Biodiesel consumption applies proxy of blending rate to diesel consumption according to energy content of Diesel (35.1 MJ/liter) and Biodiesel (32.2 MJ/liter). Figure 6 Past, present and future of biodiesel domestic, export, and CPO use (2010-2025) Fiscal Support to Biodiesel I follow classification of biofuel subsidies outlined by Dillon (2008): (1) subsidies for production of biofuels in the form i.e. subsidies to intermediate inputs (e.g. feedstock crop, energy, water), subsidies to value-adding factors (e.g. labour, capital, land), production linked payments and tax credits, tax exemptions and market price support; (2) subsidies for consumption such as subsidies for the purchase of biofuel e.g. output linked-support. Following the enactment of Presidential Instruction 1/2006 on mandatory supply of biofuel, major subsidies policies and incentives put forward are as follows. 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 C P O ( m il l to n ) B io d ie se l V o lu m e ( b il l li te r s) Biodiesel domestic use Biodiesel export Biodiesel (past) target Biodiesel future target CPO use CPO for future demand 45 (1) Production Numerous subsidies measures to intermediate inputs are in place to promote the development of biofuel feedstock plantation such as improve seedling quality, training, research and development. In the context of fiscal incentive, Ministry of Finance (MoF) Regulation 117/2006 and 79/2007 jo. 198/2010 adopts special lending rate for biofuel development and plantation revitalisation. GoI covers the gap between the market rate and the farmer’s rate. The rate for oil palm is 7% for 5 years whereas the average present market rate is 18% (as of May 201512). According to data from Bank Indonesia, IDR 1 trillion (USD 110 million) was allocated for lending rate subsidies in the 2007 financial year [2]. Dillon (2008) calculated that total subsidy spent for biofuel development from the state budget was IDR 15 trillion ~ USD 1.6 billion. (2) Consumption The agricultural commodity prices spike in end of 2007 led to uneconomic biofuel production. GoI instructed Pertamina to continue biofuel blends and to set similar price as subsidised petroleum fuels without providing the price gap creating major burden to Pertamina. They had to suffer IDR 360 billion (US$ 40 million) from biofuel blending from 2006 to 2008. Consequently, Pertamina cuts biodiesel content down to 1% in May 2008 [2]. High CPO prices together with inadequate government support had interfered industry’s operation. In May 2015, through Presidential Regulation 61/2015 GoI imposes export levy to strategic agriculture industries, including oil palm as indicated above, named as CSF. This compulsory fund charges palm oil companies for exporting CPO or its derivative products. The unprocessed CPO is subject to payment of 50 USD/ton whereas refined palm oil (including biodiesel) is 20 USD/ton. Table 5 indicates type of palm oil products and the export levy included in the analysis. Smallholder industry is exempted from this obligation. CSF will be allocated to upstream and downstream palm oil business such as for capacity building, research and development as well as for biofuels development. GoI appoints an agency to manage CSF’s collection, management, allocation and distribution. As interpreted from the formal policy, CSF is an additional obligation on top of custom duty but can partly relieve company’s income tax. CSF’s utilisation in the context of biofuel development would close the gap between diesel retail price and biodiesel producer price. Table 5 Palm oil products and CSF tariff Palm Oil Products CSF Tariff (USD/ton) Unprocessed CPO including kernel oil, olein, stearin, kernel olein, kernel stearin 50 Refined, Bleached and Deodorized (RBD) palm oil including kernel oil, olein, stearin, kernel olein, kernel stearin, biodiesel 20 Source: MoF Regulation 114/2015, [12] 12 Bank Indonesia prime lending rate: http://www.bi.go.id/id/perbankan/suku-bunga-dasar/Default.aspx as of May 2015 http://www.bi.go.id/id/perbankan/suku-bunga-dasar/Default.aspx 46 This structure implies that currently direct fiscal support for biodiesel expansion at consumption level is independent from national budget. Definition To meet the objective of the study, I review recent formal policy, government planning documents, scientific papers and information from the trusted websites. The analysis performed in this study starts by estimating biodiesel production cost using secondary data then compares it with diesel retail price and biodiesel producer price. Biodiesel production cost is reflected by life cycle cost defined as “an economic model for pricing equipment and processes over the life span of a production plant” [19]. The life cycle cost of biodiesel is predominantly built from study conducted by Ong et al (2012) on life cycle cost of palm biodiesel production in Malaysia. This article adopts mathematical formulas and a number of economic indicators used in that study. Indonesia data is applied appropriately to better reflect the country condition. Diesel retail price refers to price paid by the consumer to retailer such as Pertamina, Shell. Biodiesel is sold to consumer in the form of blend fuel with diesel. Biodiesel producer price indicates price paid by biodiesel blender such as Pertamina to biodiesel producer. Price gap is defined as the gap between biodiesel production cost and diesel retail price. Life Cycle Palm Biodiesel This article considers feedstock procurement as the initial activity in the life cycle analysis and ends at biodiesel consumption. Life cycle stage can be divided into three: agricultural, production and consumption processes (see Figure 7). Generally, biodiesel is produced through transesterification process. The process involves a short chain of alcohol e.g. ethanol or methanol and could be with the help of catalyst such as sodium hydroxide to accelerate the reaction rate [20], [21]. It converts ester that separates the triglycerides, takes the glycerol of the triglyceride and replaces it with alkyl radical of the alcohol used [20]. The process results fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) and glycerol as by-product. Figure 7 Life cycle analysis diagram for palm biodiesel production Source: adopted from [19] 47 The following assumption is applied in the study: approximately 100 tons of CPO reacts with 10.7 tons of methanol to produce 98 tons of biodiesel and 9.85 tons of glycerol as the only by-product counted in the analysis [19]. Method and Data to Calculate Life Cycle Cost The article adopts method applied by Ong et al (2012) in estimating palm biodiesel production cost in Malaysia. Nomenclature BP by product credit (USD) LCC life cycle cost (USD) CC capital cost (USD) MC maintenance cost (USD) CE biodiesel conversion efficiency MR maintenance ratio (%) CPO crude palm oil n project life time (year) d depreciation ratio (%) OC operating cost (USD) FC feedstock cost (USD/ton) OR operating rate (USD/ton) FP feedstock price (USD/ton) PC annual biodiesel production capacity (ton/year) FU feedstock consumption (ton) RC replacement cost GCF glycerol conversion factor from feedstock oil r interest rate (%) GP glycerol price (USD/kg) SV salvage value (USD) i year The cost model is developed into six groups: LCC = Capital cost + Operating cost + Maintenance cost + Feedstock cost – Salvage value – by product credit In the form of present value model, 𝐿𝐶𝐶 = 𝐶𝐶 + ∑ 𝑂𝐶𝑖 + 𝑀𝐶𝑖 + 𝐹𝐶𝑖 (1 + 𝑟)𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=1 − 𝑆𝑉 (1 + 𝑟)𝑛 − ∑ 𝐵𝑃𝑖 (1 + 𝑟)𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=1 (1) Capital cost Capital costs take into account the required land area, building construction, equipment and instrumentation required for the plant. The land acquisition cost varies widely. Ong et al. (2012) indicates capital cost per unit capacity of 240 mill USD/ton, whereas Indonesian Oil Palm Research Institute suggests 144 mill USD/ton13. Data from Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (IICB) shows wide range of capital cost per unit capacity between 75 to 366 mill USD/ton14. For this article, the median value of IICB data, 160 USD/ton, is applied. That represent plant capacity, PC = 200 ktons with estimated capital cost, CC = 32 mill USD. (2) Operating cost 13 http://www.datacon.co.id/Biofuel2008Ind.html , accessed on 12/9/2015 14 http://unisosdem.org/article_detail.php?aid=8370&coid=1&caid=28&gid=2, accessed on 12/9/2015 http://www.datacon.co.id/Biofuel2008Ind.html http://unisosdem.org/article_detail.php?aid=8370&coid=1&caid=28&gid=2 48 Operating cost includes industry overhead costs, waste water and sludge treatment processing, all other material and energy flows except of the CPO feedstock. The cost reflects the annual operating rate and plant capacity. 𝑂𝐶 = ∑ 𝑂𝑅 𝑥 𝑃𝐶 (1 + 𝑟)𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=1 (3) Maintenance cost The annual maintenance cost is assumed as a constant proxy over the project lifetime, MR = MR = 2% of capital cost [19]. 𝑀𝐶 = ∑ 𝑀𝑅 𝑥 𝐶𝐶 (1 + 𝑟)𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=1 (4) Feedstock cost Recent average CPO price in August 2015 is applied in the analysis. It is based on daily palm oil prices published by Malaysian Palm Oil Council is FP = 500 USD/ton. Annual feedstock consumption (FU) is determined by plant capacity (PC) and the conversion efficiency or plant capacity factor (CE). 𝐹𝑈 = 𝑃𝐶 𝐶𝐸 𝐹𝐶 = ∑ 𝐹𝑃 𝑥 𝐹𝑈 (1 + 𝑟)𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=1 (5) Salvage value The salvage value is defined as assets value at the end of the project lifetime by considering the depreciation rate (d). In this study, it involves replacement cost (RC) instead of initial capital cost (CC). 𝑑 = (𝑟(1 + 𝑟)𝑛) ((1 + 𝑟)𝑛 − 1) 𝑆𝑉𝑃𝑉 = 𝑅𝐶 𝑥 (1 − 𝑑)𝑛−1 (1 + 𝑟)𝑛 (6) By product credit Glycerol is the by-product credit that can be sold. Calculation is based on setting a fixed price for glycerol with production determined by a plant capacity to glycerol conversion factor. 𝐵𝑃 = ∑ 𝐺𝑃𝑥𝐺𝐶𝐹𝑥𝑃𝐶𝑥1000 (1 + 𝑟)𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=1 (7) Sensitivity analysis Sensitivity analysis examines outputs performance responding the change in key assumptions on which the projections are based. This article highlights the effect of CPO price to the level of 49 biodiesel production cost particularly due to biodiesel vulnerability to feedstock price as described in Part 0. Table 6 Summary of economic data and indicators Item Data Project lifetime 20 years Plant capacity 200 ktons Capital cost 32 mill USD Operating rate 280 USD/ton of FAME Maintenance cost 2% of capital cost annually Replacement cost 10 mill USD Taxes 10% Crude palm oil price 500 USD/ton Glycerol price 0.25 USD/kg Interest rate 8% Biodiesel conversion efficiency (based on energy content) 92% Glycerol conversion factor 0.0985 Biodiesel Producer Price In the national market, MEMR Decree 3239/2015 enacts recent of biodiesel market price as follows: Biodiesel producer price = CPO market price + 125 USD/metric ton x 870 kg/m3 + transportation cost CPO market price is based on publication of average 1 month price of Kharisma Pemasaran Bersama Nusantara unit Belawan dan Dumai before value added tax. 125 USD/metric ton is the conversion factor of CPO to biodiesel. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Biodiesel Life Cycle Cost Life cycle cost (LCC) is calculated for 200 ktons biodiesel plant using data summarised in Table 6. Results are presented in Table 7. CPO cost accounts for the largest share in final biodiesel production cost which is 66% or 0.232 USD/liter followed by operating cost at 34% or 0.119 USD/liter. The structure of the unit cost closely follows previous studies which accounts feedstock cost 70-80% of cost of biodiesel’s production [19], [22]. The sale of glycerol product contributes to 48 mill USD over the life of the project. LCC of palm biodiesel after tax is 0.385 USD/liter. At CPO price of 500 USD/ton biodiesel presents price competitiveness because the production cost is below diesel retail price and biodiesel producer price of 0.424 USD/liter15 and 0.544 USD/liter16 respectively. Table 7 Total production cost of biodiesel production plant 15 Diesel retail price as of August 2015 is 5,900 IDR/liter. GoI provides subsidy 1,000 IDR/liter. OANDA exchange rate of 31 August 2015 1 USD = 13,900 IDR 16 Biodiesel producer price excludes transportation cost 50 Item Life cycle cost (USD) Unit cost (USD/liter of biodiesel) Total capital investment 32,000,000 0,007 Feedstock cost 1,070,239,050 0.233 Operating cost 549,816,255 0.120 Maintenance cost 6,283,614 0.001 Salvage value - 278,698 - 6x10-5 By product credit - 48,354,376 - 0.011 Total LCC 1,609,705,845 before tax: 0.350 after tax: 0.385 Figure 8 Distribution of unit cost of palm biodiesel Sensitivity Analysis This study performs sensitivity to one key assumption which is CPO price. The objectives are: (1) to analyse at what level of CPO price, biodiesel would remain competitive to diesel; (2) to estimate the price gap between biodiesel cost and diesel retail price. Figure 9 draws world CPO and crude oil prices development and the future forecast. To date, CPO price has been more than two folds below the price in 2011. CPO data is used to determine assumption for sensitivity analysis. 0.007 0.233 0.120 0.001 -0.011 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 Capital cost Feedstock cost Operating cost Maintenance cost Selvage value By product credit U n it c o st ( U S D /l it er ) 51 Figure 9 Development of world palm oil price 2010 – 2019 (USD/tons) Source: EIU Economic and Commodity Forecast, July 201517 Three different CPO prices are examined: (1) Base price (BP) = 500 USD/ton presents to date price which is the average CPO price in August 2015 published by Malaysian Palm Oil Council; (2) Price sensitivity 1 (PS1) = 587 USD/ton presents the average price in Figure 9 from 2015 until 2019, reflecting future price; (3) Price sensitivity 2 (PS2) = 940 USD/ton presents the average price in Figure 9 from 2010 until 2014, reflecting high CPO price. Table 8 Results of sensitivity analysis BP CPO = 500 USD/ton PS1 CPO = 587 USD/ton PS2 CPO = 940 USD/ton LCC palm biodiesel after tax (USD/liter) 0.385 0.430 0.610 Diesel retail price (USD/liter) 0.424 0.424 0.424 Price gap (USD/liter) - 0.039 0.005 0.186 The exercise shows that at PS1 and PS2, biodiesel production cost is more than diesel retail price; hence price gap is expected. Assume that biodiesel producer price should at least cover the production cost, therefore biodiesel producer price is equal to the production cost. Fiscal support is required to cover the gap to maintain biodiesel competitiveness, respectively 0.005 USD/liter and 0.186 USD/liter for PS1 and PS2. 17http://knoema.com/wxgcxde/commodity-prices-forecast-2015-2019-charts-and- tables?variable=Palm%20oil%20(US%24%2Ftonne) 901 1,125 999 857 821 656 592 570 565 555 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 W o rl d c ru d e o il p ri ce ( U S D /b a rr el ) W o rl d p a lm o il p ri ce ( U S D /t o n s) World palm oil price Crude oil price 52 Evaluate the feasibility of CSF fund to promote biodiesel expansion This part assesses the feasibility of CSF fund that may become available to cover the price gap at high CPO price to meet biodiesel target in 2015. Table 9 Subsidy costs at high CPO price PS1 CPO = 587 USD/ton PS2 CPO = 940 USD/ton (1) Biodiesel consumption in 2015 (bill liters) 5.6 5.6 (2) Price gap (USD/liter) 0.005 0.186 (3) Total subsidy (mill USD) = (1) x (2) 29.21 1,041.70 Based on data presented in Table 5, I calculate the amount of CSF that may become available generated from palm oil products export volume. The fund is calculated based on palm oil data in 2012. Table 10 Calculation of CSF that may become available Palm oil products Export volume in 2012 (ton) Volume available to generate CSF (ton) CSF tariff (USD/ton) **Possible CSF available (mill USD) (1) (2) (3) (4) Crude palm oil 7,262,831 1,814,414* 50 90.72 Solid fractions of unrefined palm oil not chemically modified 221,841 221,841 50 11.09 Unsolid fractions of unrefined palm oil not chemically modified 591,983 591,983 50 29.60 Solid fractions of refined palm oil packing of a net weight_20 kg 149,083 149,083 20 2.98 Solid fractions of refined palm oil packing of a net weight> 20 kg 1,110,308 1,110,308 20 22.21 Unsolid fractions of refined palm oil packing of a net weight_20 kg 742,543 742,543 20 14.85 Unsolid fractions of refined palm oil packing of a net weight> 20 kg 8,772,249 8,772,249 20 175.44 Total 18,850,838 13,402,421 346.90 Note: (1) Data on export volume is derived from [12] (2) *CPO volume available to generate CSF is deducted by CPO volume to satisfy biodiesel target in 2015, equal to 5.6 bill liters (see Table 4). Part of that is already fulfilled by the consumption in 2012 (0.67 bill liters), hence 4.93 bill liters of additional biodiesel needs to be produced. CPO volume available to generate CSF = 7,262,831 ton – [(5.6 bill liters - 0.67 bill liters) / 905 liters FAME/ton CPO x 109)] = 1,814,414 ton (3) CSF Tariff is based on MoF Regulation 114/2015 (4) Possible CSF available = (2) x (3) 53 The analysis indicates sufficient fund available to cover subsidy costs at CPO price 587 USD/ton, but inadequate at the level of 940 USD/ton. The former implies to utilising 8% of total CSF that may become available. As explained in Part 0, CSF will be distributed for various downstream and upstream biodiesel industries. The availability of CSF for subsidising the price gap would highly depend on GoI’s priorities of allocating the fund. Using backward calculation, I calculated the ceiling price for CPO assuming 50% of CSF is available to cover the price gap. The calculation results to CPO price of 637 USD/ton and biodiesel production cost of of 0.455 USD/liter (after tax). With similar calculation method, biodiesel production cost is equal to diesel price (price gap = 0) at CPO price of 576.82 USD/ton. CONCLUDING REMARKS This paper points out the urgent need to develop domestic biodiesel aiming at restricting import of high price crude oil which had caused current budget deficit. Biodiesel industry is currently benefited from attractive biodiesel producer price and low feedstock price making it competitive to diesel. High feedstock price creates uncertainty to the level of support needed. The sensitivity analysis particularly highlights the feasibility of newly introduced scheme, CSF, to cover the price gap between biodiesel production cost and diesel price at high CPO price. The study indicates that the feasibility would depend on government decision to allocate the fund. While the adoption of CFS is expected to boost biodiesel production for domestic use, decline in export volume appears to increase uncertainty of fund available. This paper primarily looks at different level of feedstock price affecting government level of support. Future analysis should include the following parameters such as crude oil price, world CPO price and its derivatives products and international demand to palm oil commodity to acknowledging complexity of biodiesel economy. Note: Quoting information from this paper is subject to consulting with author. 54 REFERENCES [1] IEA, “Indonesia 2015.” 2015. [2] H. S. Dillon, T. Laan, and H. S. Dillon, BIOFUELS - AT WHAT COST ? Government support for ethanol and biodiesel in Indonesia, no. December. 2008. [3] GoI, “Nota Keuangan dan Rancangan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan 2015,” 2015. [4] T. 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[11] Indonesia Investments, “Palm Oil Update Indonesia : Subsidies for Biofuel to Lift CPO Prices Today ’ s Headlines,” no. March 2014, pp. 2014–2016, 2015. [12] MoA, “The Crop Estate Statistics of Indonesia 2012-2014,” 2013. [13] T. Wright, “Indonesia Biofuels Annual 2014,” no. 25, 2014. [14] MoA, Statistik Pertanian 2014. 2014. [15] BPPT, Indonesia Energy Outlook 2014. 2014. [16] W. Caroko, H. Komarudin, and K. Obidzinski, “Policy and institutional frameworks for the development of palm oil–based biodiesel in Indonesia,” 2011. [17] BPKP, “Audit PKPS-BBM Berlanjut Hingga 2004,” 2004. [18] T. Wright and A. Rahmanulloh, “Indonesia Biofuels Annual Report 2015,” 2015. [19] H. C. Ong, T. M. I. Mahlia, H. H. Masjuki, and D. Honnery, “Life cycle cost and sensitivity analysis of palm biodiesel production,” Fuel, vol. 98, pp. 131–139, Aug. 2012. 55 [20] M. Canakci and H. Sanli, “Biodiesel production from various feedstocks and their effects on the fuel properties.,” Journal of industrial microbiology & biotechnology, vol. 35, no. 5, pp. 431–41, May 2008. [21] T. Silalertruksa and S. H. Gheewala, “Environmental sustainability assessment of palm biodiesel production in Thailand,” Energy, vol. 43, no. 1, pp. 306–314, Jul. 2012. [22] K. R. Jegannathan, C. Eng-Seng, and P. Ravindra, “Economic assessment of biodiesel production: Comparison of alkali and biocatalyst processes,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 745–751, Jan. 2011. 56 Local Officials’ Concerns of Climate Change Issues in China: A Case from Jiangsu Qiying Hu Jiangsu Low Carbon Development Project, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Changjianglu No. 9 Block Bld. B2, Room 704 Dengfuxiang 18 210018 Nanjing, Jiangsu Prov. PR China Email: qiying.hu@giz.de ABSTRACT To successfully implement climate policy at different levels, local officials should have a better understanding of climate change issues. Using 191 valid questionnaires collected in 13 district cities in Jiangsu, China, this study found that local officials are aware of climate change and that they demonstrate a strong willingness to improve their understanding of climate science, management approaches, and climate policy. Further analysis reveals that officials working outside of the climate-related field showed stronger demands for enhancing their knowledge about climate change than those working in the field. The research suggests that the Jiangsu government would need to integrate capacity building into climate policy and take a systematic approach to equip local officials with newest scientific knowledge, policy developments, and necessary capacities for addressing climate change and pushing forward local low carbon development. KEYWORDS awareness of climate change, CO2 emissions reductions, capacity building for officials INTRODUCTION Jiangsu province is one of the most developed and economically active regions in China, which was the third biggest CO2 emitter in China. Jiangsu is vulnerable to climate change and facing pressure in reducing its carbon intensity. In China, it is local officials who practice measures and instruments, oversee low carbon progress, and connect climate policy processing with diverse individuals. Officials’ performances and actions play a critical role to determine whether or not CO2 emissions reduction and energy saving policies are implemented successfully. With this regard, this study aims to understand local officials’ awareness, beliefs and attitudes towards climate change, evaluate their capacity need to implement policy and respond to climate change risks, and provide information for the government to develop effective policy to enhance capacity building for local officials to help individuals to translate their intentions of CO2 emissions reductions into actions. RESEARCH DESIGN & DATA COLLECTION Research area Jiangsu province is located in the eastern coast of China and the downstream of the Yangzi River. The entire province nestles in the Yangzi River Delta, one of the most developed, densely populated, and economically active regions in China. Like most of the world’s river lower deltas, Jiangsu is mailto:qiying.hu@giz.de 57 vulnerable to climate change, especially sea level rise, which causes flooding from ocean storms and has potential to place tens of thousands of people at risk (Fan and Li, 2006; James, et al.,2009). Over the past years, the Jiangsu government has issued several policies and measures to respond to the central government’s actions on energy conservation and emissions reductions, facilitate its transition towards low carbon development, and address climate change risks. In 2009, the Jiangsu government compiled the Planning for Addressing Climate Change at the provincial level required by the central government, which prioritizes areas and policy measures for mitigating GHG emissions and adaptation to climate change risks, such as saving energy in key sectors and cities, optimizing and escalating industry structure, developing renewable and clean energies, and improving energy efficiency by using innovative technologies. During the 11th Five Year Plan, Jiangsu accomplished its target of energy conservation and emissions reduction allocated by the central government, reaching an accumulated decrease of 20.45% in energy consumption per unit of GDP. For the 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015), in response to the new emissions reduction target set by the central government, by 2015 Jiangsu should reduce its CO2 emissions and energy consumption per unit of GDP by 19% and 18%, respectively, compared with the 2010 levels, increase Jiangsu’s share of no-fossil fuels of overall primary energy consumption by 7%, and increase forest coverage rate by 22% and forest stock by 6 million m3. These low carbon indicators have been officially included in the Jiangsu 12th Five Year Plan and mandated to be reached within the next five years under the average, annual economic growth rate of 10% (JDRC, 2011b). As one of the most developed regions in China, Jiangsu has begun to address the emerging challenges of building a low carbon society and coping with climate change risks. It is hoped that the information on local officials’ concerns about climate change from Jiangsu would be helpful for the Jiangsu government as well as the central and other provincial governments to initiate effective programs to improve officials’ capacity in implementing climate policy at different levels. Questionnaire design This study explored three specific research questions: 1) How do local officials understand climate change issues and what are their beliefs and concerns of China’s climate and energy issues; 2) How are local officials willing to improve their ability in dealing with climate change risks and what do they need to address climate change; and 3) How would climate policy at Jiangsu reflect local officials’ responses and capacity needs to manage climate change? To answer the questions, a questionnaire was designed on the basis of previous research related to both climate change science and policy measures as well as capacity building theories. A desktop literature review was conducted to survey the newest development of climate change science (e.g. IPCC reports), popularly used instruments to measure climate change awareness and concerns (e.g. Stanford University, Globe Scan, Yale and George Mason Universities, etc.), research work related to impacts of climate change on China, China’s policy and actions responding to climate change, as well as China’s real situations facing climate change challenges. This previous work was reflected in and informed the three main sections of the questionnaire developed for this study to examine local officials’ views on climate change in the Chinese contest. Based on capacity building theories and practices derived mainly from the literatures and reports released by the UN system (UNDP, 2009; UNDP, 2010a; UNDP, 2010b; FAO, 2010; GEF et al., 2010; WB, 2006), this research developed a capacity building framework for addressing climate 58 change in China, which served as a guideline for designing the questionnaire to examine Chinese officials’ needs for capacity improvement. The capacity building framework focuses on the individual capacities that are considered as requirements for officials to understand and make decisions on climate change policy and implement governmental policy at different levels (Table 1). Table 1. Capacity framework for officials addressing climate change Capacities Descriptions Technical capacity Accounting GHG emissions and energy consumption and managing emissions data Analyzing and assessing vulnerabilities and impacts of climate change risks Assessing low carbon performance and monitoring low carbon development processing Monitoring and managing policy implementation procedures, results, and expected performance, assessing and monitoring climate programs, providing feedback Knowledg e capacity Improving awareness and knowledge of climate change and its causes and risks Understanding national low carbon development and climate policy Obtaining relevant information and applying scientific results to support decision-making Analyzing impacts of climate change on individuals and understanding low carbon lifestyle Thinking of climate change issues systematically and comprehensively Policy capacity Forming and designing market-based emissions reduction and intensive mechanisms Integrating climate change risk management into low carbon development plan Including climate change mitigation and adaptation into low carbon green development Using decision-making tools to develop climate policy Coordinating with different stakeholders to implement climate policy Analyzing impacts of climate policy on individual and industrial sectors Explaining national, regional and local policy and their implementation The questionnaire developed to collect data for this research consists of four major parts. The first section included the basic demographic information, such as gender, age, educational and academic background, employment history, relevance of participants’ work to climate change related fields, membership of environmental organizations, and volunteering environmental events or activities. The second section of the questionnaire developed 12 climate change related topics to examine how well respondents’ knowledge about the issues. A three-point scale was used to measures participants’ knowledge level on climate topics, such as “never heard about it”, “heard about it”, and “know about it.” In the third part of the survey, 15 statements regarding the climate science and China’s situations were designed to examine respondents’ attitudes and beliefs about the climate issues. The statements were framed from perspectives of the causes of climate change, social and 59 environmental impacts, and potential solutions to climate issues. Respondents were asked to indicate their levels of agreement/disagreement of each statement on a 5-point scale. Following, three questions regarding China’s energy situation were included. The first question asked participants to express their concerns about China’s energy security under the circumstance that China is expected to import 70% of its oil from overseas. The second one asked participants’ attitudes towards future nuclear development in China after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. The third one asked participants to indicate their concerns using renewable energies. The fourth part of the questionnaire surveyed local officials’ willingness to raise their awareness of climate change and about what topics they desire more knowledge. The first question asked participants if there is a need to improve their knowledge about climate change. The following questions investigated specific themes that participants would think important for enhancing their understandings of climate change issues. This part was organized as 7 climate sciences, 8 climate change management approaches, and 9 climate policies. A 5-point scale from “very important “to “not important” was used for participants to indicate their needs for capacity improvement on managing climate change. Survey procedures Before the official survey, the questionnaire was sent to climate experts, governmental officials, and climate change program managers for review. Meanwhile, several graduate students were invited to test the entire questionnaire. Based on feedback ascertained from expert reviews and pre-testing, the questionnaire was revised in wording, grammar, and scientific expressions to ensure its validity and reliability. In the official survey, an open question was added to ask participants to evaluate the effectiveness of the questionnaire. Thirty-five participants responded to this question and all of them indicated that the questionnaire is comprehensive and covers all necessary topics, targets the audience appropriately, and is clear and easy to read and understand. This information helped to confirm the reliability and quality of the questionnaire. Compared with officials from central governmental agencies, local officials in this research refer to those who are taking a post at governmental agencies from districts, cities and counties in Jiangsu province, excluding those from the provincial governmental agencies. The survey was conducted from November to December 2011 and the Jiangsu Development Reform Commissions (JDRC) helped to distribute 250 questionnaires to governmental bureaus, offices, and administrative units across all 13 district cities of Jiangsu province, including most of the 31 county-level cities and 33 counties, as well as a workshop for local officials. Participants from the diverse agencies were voluntarily and anonymously took part in this research and they were given detailed instructions on how to respond to the questions, especially the importance of answering the questions frankly and giving their true thoughts. Finally, 191 valid questionnaires were used for the data analysis. As shown in Table 2, the majority of participants (64%) are male and the average age is 35.3. Participants are well educated, 96.9% of them with a college degree or above, and most (80%) are trained in the social sciences. More than half of the participants (56%) were employed before 2000, nearly 40% of participants are working in the climate change related field, around 60% of participants volunteered to environmental protection activities, and only 5.2% of them are official members of an environmental organization. 60 Table 2. Profile for participants Variables Number of sample Mean/freque ncy Participants 191 Male 122 63.9% Female 69 36.1% Age 172 35.4 (S.D=8.338) Education College 148 77.5% Masters and above 37 19.4% High school 6 3.1% Academic background Engineering/Natural sciences 37 20% Humanities /Social Sciences 149 80% Year of employment Before 2000 (including 2000) 103 56% After 2000 81 44% Work relevance to climate change Relevant 86 46% Not relevant 102 54% Member of environmental organization 10 5.2% Volunteering in environment activities 113 59.2% SURVEY RESULTS Knowledge of climate change As shown in Table 3, global warming was well recognized by respondents, with more than 90% of them knowing the trend of global climate change. International climate policies like the Kyoto Protocol (63%) and the Framework Convention on Climate Change (55%) were also well known topics, with only 7% of participants having never heard of them. More than half of the respondents (52%) knew the Chinese government’s emissions commitment for 2020, and nearly half of them understood key issues like energy and climate change security, China’s emissions status in the world, and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Only 40% of participants acknowledged China’s low carbon practices and emissions trading. Although China’s CDM has the biggest share of the world’s project-based carbon market, 34% of respondents have never heard of CDM. Similarly, nearly 40% and 30% of respondents indicated that they have never heard about CCS and carbon sinks, respectively. Table 3. Knowledge of climate topics (N=191) Knowledge items Know about it Heard about it Never heard about it Global climate is becoming warmer over the past hundred years 91.10% 8.40% 0.50% Carbon capture and storage (CCS) 27.20% 34.00% 38.70% 61 Carbon sink or carbon sequestration 36.10% 35.10% 28.80% United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 55.50% 37.20% 7.30% Kyoto Protocol 62.80% 30.40% 6.80% CDM（Clean Development Mechanism） 38.70% 27.20% 34.0% Emissions trading 40.30% 41.90% 17.80% Climate /energy security 49.70% 46.60% 3.70% China’s provincial and city low carbon pilot programs 39.70% 42.90% 17.50% China is the world biggest GHG emitter since 2007 47.90% 38.90% 13.20% China will cut its carbon intensity by 40- 45% by 2020 against the 2005 level 52.40% 31.90% 15.70% Adaptation and mitigation are the two major strategies for coping with climate change challenges 46.60% 41.90% 11.50% Attitudes and beliefs in climate change As illustrated in Table 4, respondents showed a better understanding of the relationship between human-induced GHG emissions and climate change issues. The majority (93%) of respondents recognized changes in climate in their daily surroundings, 91.2% considered deforestation as one of the sources of CO2 emissions, 84.4% knew GHG comes from burning fossil fuels, 82.7% believed that GHG emissions from human activities contribute to climate change, and 81.7% thought energy-related emissions are the major source of GHG emissions. For the 5 statements related to the consequences of climate change, 92.7% of respondents believed that climate change impacts social and economic development and people’s daily lives, 89.5% agreed sea level rise associated with climate change causes flooding in China’s coastal regions, 81.7% thought climate change would lead to disasters if no actions are taken immediately, 77.6% agreed that climate change would reduce water availability and result in water shortage problems in northern China, and 83.7% supported the view that climate change may cause some diseases to spread and threaten public health in China. On the topic of solutions to climate change, the majority (94%) of respondents indicated that energy conservation is an important solution to reducing GHG emissions, 87.4% supported China’s earlier actions to mitigate GHG emissions despite associated with high cost, and 80% were optimistic about the future, since they believed that humans would find ways to deal with climate change issues as they grow more severe. However, the results indicated a trend that respondents did not favor climate change solutions that require individuals to pay extra money from their own pockets. For example, 50% of respondents supported a carbon tax mechanism, while 21.4% opposed it. Fifty-five of respondents were willing to pay for extra money to support the rise of oil prices for climate protection, but 19% of them were not willing to take this action. 62 Table 4. Attitudes and believes in climate change Statements 1-5 Likert-Scale (N=191) Mea n S.D I have observed climate change in my daily surroundings. 4.44 .591 Burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas emits GHG 4.24 .996 GHG emissions from human activities are the main cause of global warming 4.00 .863 CO2 is the most important GHG , and is mainly emitted by burning fossil fuels 4.01 .707 Deforestation is one of the major factors that contribute to GHG emissions 4.11 .721 Sea level rise associated with global warming would cause flooding disasters in China’s coastal areas. 4.19 .683 Global climate change would affect Chinese people’s daily life and living standards. 4.18 .671 Climate change would intensify water shortages in northern China and affect water resource availability. 4.04 .716 The increase of temperature may cause some diseases to spread and threaten public health in China. 4.01 .658 As predicted by scientists, if temperatures keep rising, we will face catastrophic consequences. 4.07 .804 Energy conservation is an important strategy to reduce GHG emissions. 4.12 .621 China should levy a carbon tax on energy consumption to encourage individuals to cut CO2 emissions. 3.40 1.087 I am willing to pay a higher price for petroleum if the money is used to support climate protection. 3.42 1.036 Although climate change mitigation is very costly, China should act immediately to reduce emissions. 4.19 .710 Climate change is a serious problem, but I believe we can find solutions to the issue. 3.99 .754 The data also indicates respondents’ great concerns about China’s energy problems. The majority (96%) of respondents believed that China would face energy shortage problems in the future, and 90% thought that China’s energy security would be affected by its heavy dependence on imported oil. After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, 62% of respondents believed that China should slow down its nuclear development and place safety as the top priority, but 38% insisted China should speed up its nuclear development to meet the rapidly increased energy demands. In regards to renewable energy, Table 5 reveals that respondents’ biggest concern is the price of renewable energy, followed by the stability of energy supply and renewable energy’s contribution to CO2 emissions cuts. It seems respondents are least concerned about the link between renewable energy and economic development and job creation. 63 Table 5. Concerns of using renewable energy Factors that affect the use of renewable energy Percentage (N=191) Price of renewable electricity 40.30% Stable supply of renewable electricity 28.30% Contribution to CO2 emissions reductions 23.00% Contribution to economic development and employment 8.30% Improving understandings of climate change When asked if respondents are willing to raise their understandings of climate change issues, 94% answered positively and 61% showed interests in knowing more about specific climate topics. As Table 6 shown, climate change sciences, climate change mitigation (88.7%), and impacts of climate change on society, economy and eco-system (88.1%) were prioritized as important topics, followed by scientific information on climate adaptation (82.7%), climate change trend, causes, and consequences (81.7%), the relationship between green development and addressing climate change (81.1%), and the link between low carbon society and managing climate change disasters (77.8%). Relatively, fewer respondents believed that climate change risks is an importance topic for understanding climate issues (72%), despite the fact that China has been listed as one of the vulnerable countries in the world to climate change impacts. Table 6. Scientific knowledge on climate change Climate change scientific topics 1-5 Likert Scale(N=191) Mean S.D Climate change: changing courses and causes 4.03 .064 Climate change risks and risk management 3.86 .062 Impacts of climate change on the environment, society and economy 4.17 .058 Climate change mitigation 4.19 .057 Climate change adaptation 4.12 .065 Green development and addressing climate change 4.18 .065 Low carbon society and resilience of climate risks 3.85 .070 For approaches to managing climate change, as indicated in Table 7, low carbon technology development and deployment (84.3%) and developing of low carbon indicators (83.5%) were prioritized as important topics, followed by the international MRV systems on GHG emissions (82%), methods for decomposing Chinese emissions reduction targets for the 12th Five Year Plan (82%), energy auditing (80%), and energy management contracting (78.5%). China’s GHG emissions monitoring and accounting, carbon cap-and-trade mechanism, and climate financial systems were favored by 75% respondents, respectively. In addition, 73.7% of respondents were interested in techniques that would be put into practice for local climate change adaptation. Only 71% of respondents responded to CDM methodologies as an important topic to learn. 64 Table 7. Techniques for managing climate change Techniques 1-5 Likert Scale (N=191) Mean S.D Energy auditing 3.97 .069 Energy Management Contract (EMC) 3.96 .062 China’s GHG emissions monitoring and accounting 3.97 .061 International systems on measuring, reporting and verification of GHG emissions 4.03 .064 Methodologies of decomposing energy and carbon intensity reduction targets for China’s 12th Five Year Plan 4.11 .069 Practical techniques for local climate adaptation 3.95 .066 Development of CDM project: procedures and methodologies 3.88 .067 Carbon cap-and-trade mechanism 3.87 .062 Climate /low carbon financial systems 3.87 .060 Low carbon technologies and R &D 4.08 .065 Indicator system for low carbon development 3.97 .065 Table 8 reveals that China’s strategic planning for energy and renewable energy, measures to fulfill the emissions targets set by the 12th Five Year Plan, and GHG emissions reduction policy were prioritized as important topics, each gaining 85% support rate by respondents. Policy impacts on social and economic development, international cooperation and technology transfer between developing and developed nations, and new developments on climate negotiations were preferred by 80% of respondents, respectively. Seventy-eight percent of respondents were interested in China’s long-term strategies on addressing climate change issues, and 69% of them favored international climate regulations and policies. Table 8. Policy approaches for addressing climate change Climate change policy and mechanisms 1-5 Likert- Scale(N=191) Mean S.D International climate regulations and policies 3.72 .064 China’s strategies and planning for addressing climate change issues 3.89 .066 China’s strategic planning for energy and renewable development 4.06 .061 Socio-economic impacts of China’s climate and energy policy 4.02 .059 Effective policies for controlling and reducing GHG emissions 4.15 .056 Measures for China to reach its energy conservation and emissions reduction target set by the 12th Five Year Plan 4.17 .061 65 International climate cooperation and technology transfer 4.10 .067 International climate negotiations and developments 3.96 .064 Responses from different groups Further data analysis was conducted to identify differences in views of climate change and demands for capacity development among groups from different social and professional backgrounds. There were no significant differences between female and male respondents regarding awareness about climate issues. However, male respondents showed significantly lower interest than females for knowing more about climate change risks and management (p
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